Changjiang Securities·2025-07-09 09:29Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses three potential paths for the construction materials industry to counteract "involution," aiming to alleviate deflation and stabilize employment. These paths include limiting capital expenditure, clearing existing production capacity, and constraining current output [6][7] - The report highlights the ongoing decline in cement prices and a decrease in glass inventory, indicating a weak demand environment [8] - Recommendations include focusing on special glass fiber and the African supply chain, with leading companies in existing markets being the main investment focus for the year [9] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report emphasizes the need for the construction materials industry to adapt to economic pressures through various strategies to manage supply and demand effectively [6][7] Market Performance - Cement prices have continued to decline, with the national average price dropping by 1.2% due to weak market demand and production issues [8][25] - The average cement price is reported at 353.39 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 41.13% [25] Recommendations - Special glass fiber is highlighted as a key area for investment, particularly in companies like China National Materials Technology, which is positioned to benefit from domestic substitution trends [9] - The African supply chain is also recommended, with companies like Keda Manufacturing showing strong performance in niche markets [9] Demand Trends - The report notes a significant decline in real estate transaction volumes, with a 17% year-on-year decrease in new home sales across 30 major cities [8] - The construction materials sector is expected to see a shift towards existing inventory products, driven by improved demand in the second-hand housing market and urban renovation policies [9]