瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - EB2508 oscillated strongly and closed at 7350 yuan/ton. The supply side saw a 0.05% week-on-week decrease in styrene output to 366,600 tons last week, with capacity utilization down 0.05% week-on-week to 80.03%. The demand side witnessed a 5.21% week-on-week decline in the consumption of major downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) to 243,600 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased 2.99% week-on-week to 194,000 tons, while the inventory at East China ports increased 12.85% week-on-week to 1.115 million tons, and the inventory at South China ports decreased 40% week-on-week to 9,000 tons. After the concentrated restart of large - scale plants, the styrene operating rate has remained high. This week, a 300,000 - ton plant in Hebei is planned to shut down, and a 350,000 - ton plant in the Northeast and a 120,000 - ton plant in Central China will restart, with output and capacity utilization expected to rise slightly. Terminal demand is in the off - season, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs. The finished product inventory of "Three S" downstream is high, and the profits of EPS and PS are still low; although the profit of ABS has recovered due to weak costs, the demand has not improved. The overall inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, making de - stocking more difficult. In terms of cost, the US may maintain sanctions on some oil - producing countries, and market concerns about US tariff negotiation issues have weakened, causing recent international oil prices to fluctuate strongly; the supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to remain loose, and its price lacks support. Overall, the styrene spot price still faces certain pressure this week; for futures, the basis logic of the July 08 contract has a greater impact, and the discounted futures price provides some support for EB2508, with the price likely to be stronger than the spot. Daily attention should be paid to the support around 7200 and the resistance around 7400 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 7350 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan. The trading volume was 295,912 lots, down 120,401 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders were 383,288 lots, down 2062 lots; the net long positions were - 13,915 lots, up 8848 lots; the short positions were 397,203 lots, down 10,910 lots. The closing price of the September contract was 7263 yuan/ton. The open interest of the active contract was 263,168 lots, down 9774 lots. The spot price of styrene was 7914 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 895 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 905 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2]. 现货市场 - The mainstream price of styrene in the Northeast region was 7675 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the South China region, it was 7755 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; in the North China region, it was 7625 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the East China region, it was 7605 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 819.5 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FD US Gulf price was 457 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was 278 US cents/gallon, up 4 US cents; the CIF Taiwan price was 728.83 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB Rotterdam price was 762 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; in the East China market, it was 5875 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; in the North China market, it was 5800 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 产业情况 - The overall styrene operating rate was 80.03%, down 0.05%. The national styrene inventory was 193,950 tons, down 5973 tons; the total inventory at the East China main port was 111,500 tons, up 12,700 tons; the trade inventory at the East China main port was 39,000 tons, up 7700 tons [2]. 下游情况 - The operating rate of EPS was 55.88%, down 3.84%; the operating rate of ABS was 65.04%, down 0.96%; the operating rate of PS was 52.4%, down 5%; the operating rate of UPR was 29%, down 1%; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 73.66%, down 0.43% [2]. 行业消息 - The National Development and Reform Commission estimates that China's GDP in 2025 will be around 140 trillion yuan. From June 27 to July 3, China's styrene plant output was 366,600 tons, down 0.05% from the previous period, and the plant capacity utilization was 80.03%, down 0.05% month - on - month. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of styrene was 243,600 tons, down 5.21% month - on - month. As of July 3, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene plants was 194,000 tons, down 2.99% from the previous period [2].