Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-09 09:46Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report On Wednesday, the HC2510 contract decreased in positions and consolidated. Macroscopically, US Treasury Secretary Bezant said on the 7th local time that he expects to meet with Chinese officials in the next few weeks to promote consultations between China and the US on trade and other issues. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils continued to rise, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.83%, remaining at a high level. Both factory and social inventories increased, with the total inventory rising by 3.77 million tons. The apparent demand was 3.2437 million tons, 66,700 tons higher than the same period last year. Overall, the output of hot-rolled coils remained high, and the terminal demand was quite resilient. Tariff issues and anti-involution affected the market trading sentiment, but the strong performance of furnace materials provided cost support. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were回调 downward and might test the support at the 0 axis. The operation strategy is to go long on dips, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the position volume was 1,582,553 lots, a decrease of 11,138 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was 20,460 lots, an increase of 1,883 lots; the price difference between the HC10 - 1 contract was -11 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan [2]. - The daily warehouse receipt of HC on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,587 tons, unchanged; the price difference between the HC2510 - RB2510 contract was 127 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou, it was 3,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan, it was 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,140 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the HC main contract was 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the price difference between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 727 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 8 yuan; the market price of quasi-first-class metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax-excluded) was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,910 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The domestic iron ore port inventory was 138.784 million tons, a decrease of 518,300 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 617,100 tons, a decrease of 121,000 tons [2]. - The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3755 million tons, an increase of 100,400 tons; the billet inventory in Hebei was 873,400 tons, an increase of 100,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.44%, a decrease of 0.40%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.27%, a decrease of 0.58% [2]. - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils of sample steel mills was 3.2814 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot-rolled coils was 83.83%, an increase of 0.24% [2]. - The factory inventory of hot-rolled coils of sample steel mills was 783,200 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.6661 million tons, an increase of 367,000 tons [2]. - The domestic crude steel output was 8.655 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 1.01 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 2.6485 million vehicles, an increase of 29,800 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 2.6863 million vehicles, an increase of 96,700 vehicles [2]. - The monthly output of air conditioners was 29.48 million units, a decrease of 1.353 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 8.51 million units, an increase of 331,000 units [2]. - The monthly output of household washing machines was 9.412 million units, a decrease of 239,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In June 2025, the national ex-factory price of industrial producers decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month; the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 4.3% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month. In the first half of the year, the ex-factory price of industrial producers decreased by 2.8% compared with the same period last year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 2.9% [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Bezant said on the 7th local time that he expects to meet with Chinese officials in the next few weeks to promote consultations between China and the US on trade and other issues [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention The weekly output, factory inventory, and social inventory of hot-rolled coils on Thursday [2]