中辉期货热卷早报-20250709

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The steel industry is facing a situation where long - term demand is weak, but short - term market sentiment has been boosted by policies. The overall performance of the steel market is a combination of long - term and short - term factors, resulting in a range - bound and volatile operation [1][3][4][5]. - The iron ore market has a neutral supply - demand structure, and the so - called "anti - involution" mainly affects market sentiment in the short term. It is recommended to participate in the short - term range and arrange short positions in the medium term [1][7][8][9]. - The coke and coking coal markets have relatively stable supply - demand relationships, with some changes in production and inventory. They are expected to show a volatile trend [1][10][12][13][14][16][17]. - The ferroalloy market has a situation where supply and demand are increasing, but there are problems such as high inventory and weakening market sentiment. The price is expected to run within a range [18][19][20]. Summary by Variety Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - Rebar - Variety View: Recent anti - involution policies on capacity reduction have strengthened market sentiment and improved expectations. Currently, hot metal production remains high, rebar production continues to rise, and steel export demand is still good. However, domestic demand has entered the off - season, and the long - term weak state remains unchanged [1][4]. - Operation Suggestion: In the context of basis repair, the market may operate within the range of [3050, 3090] [1]. - Hot - rolled Coil - Variety View: The final anti - dumping duty ruling on China's hot - rolled coil exports by Vietnam has been finalized. Domestic hot - rolled coil production has increased slightly, apparent demand has decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory has changed little [1][4]. - Operation Suggestion: The supply and demand are generally balanced, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The previous upward movement was mainly driven by improved market sentiment. In the short term, it may operate within the range of [3170, 3210] [1]. Iron Ore - Variety View: Fundamentally, hot metal production on the demand side has decreased and is expected to decline slowly in the future. On the supply side, the shipping rush has ended, but arrivals still have an increase. Ports are accumulating inventory, and steel mills are replenishing inventory as needed. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral. The so - called "anti - involution" has limited impact on the black industry and mainly reflects emotional trading in the short term [1][8]. - Operation Suggestion: Participate in the short - term range and arrange short positions in the medium term, with the short - term range being [720, 750] [1][9]. Coke - Variety View: The production of independent coking enterprises has recently declined, but the production of steel mills and coking enterprises remains high. The total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Hot metal production has increased month - on - month, ensuring the demand for raw materials. The supply - demand relationship has not changed much. The short - term market sentiment has improved, but it faces moving average resistance above [1][12]. - Operation Suggestion: It may return to a volatile trend within the range of [1420, 1455] [1]. Coking Coal - Variety View: Domestic coking coal production has decreased slightly, but some previously shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and the supply is expected to increase in the future. The absolute level of upstream inventory is still high, spot transactions have improved, and the overall market sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the resistance of the 60 - day moving average above [1][16]. - Operation Suggestion: It is expected to show a volatile trend within the range of [830, 860] [1]. Ferroalloys (including manganese silicon and ferrosilicon) - Manganese Silicon - Variety View: Last week, the fundamentals of supply and demand both increased, but the overall inventory pressure is still obvious, and the cost - side ore price has strong bottom support. Although the current hot metal production is running at a high level, the actual demand may decline under pressure as the off - season approaches [18][19]. - Operation Suggestion: Market sentiment is gradually cooling down, and it will still be under pressure to operate before the fundamentals are significantly improved [20]. - Ferrosilicon - Variety View: The fundamentals of supply and demand are both increasing, and the cost side currently has weak support for prices. As the coal consumption peak season arrives from July to August, prices are expected to pick up due to cost factors. However, the current factory inventory level is still relatively high, some factories still have复产 plans, and the off - season of downstream consumption has arrived, increasing the difficulty of factory de - stocking [18][19]. - Operation Suggestion: Market sentiment is gradually cooling down, and the real - world pressure will still suppress the rebound height. It is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound operation within the range of [5250, 5450] [1][20].