Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home [12] Core Viewpoints - Profit margin improvement is a continuous evolution direction for Haier, with a steady upward trend in profit margins observed in recent years. The report aims to systematically assess the potential and space for Haier's long-term profit margin enhancement by addressing three core questions: what factors have historically led to Haier's relatively low profit margins, what driving forces exist for profit improvement during the transformation process, and how much room for profit margin enhancement is there in the future [4][20] Summary by Relevant Sections Current Profit Margin Structure - Haier's overall gross margin has shown a year-on-year improvement since 2020, with a projected gross margin of 27.8% in 2024. The gross margins for various business segments in 2024 are expected to be 30.8% for refrigerators, 31.4% for washing machines, 23.9% for air conditioners, 29.3% for kitchen appliances, 41.6% for water appliances, and 8.6% for channel services, all reflecting year-on-year increases [23][25] Factors Leading to Low Profit Margins - The company's long-standing profit structure features "high gross margin + high expense ratio + low net profit margin." This is primarily due to differences in sales models compared to competitors, with air conditioning business still in the optimization phase and a significant investment in overseas acquisitions since 2015 impacting overall profitability [7][49][71] Drivers of Profit Margin Optimization - Since 2019, Haier's profitability has entered a phase of continuous improvement, with gross and expense sides contributing approximately 50% each to the incremental growth. The company is leveraging AI tools for digital transformation, which has already shown significant efficiency improvements. The domestic high-end brand Casarte has established a leading position, while overseas operations are undergoing organizational changes and production facility optimizations [8][10] Future Profit Margin Elasticity - Through digital transformation, product premiumization, and supply chain optimization, Haier aims to enhance profitability. Projections for 2024 suggest a long-term steady-state gross margin could rise to between 29.97% and 32.30%, with the expense ratio potentially optimizing to between 17.34% and 20.07%, leading to a net profit margin increase to between 10.85% and 14.08%, corresponding to an additional performance release of 56%-106% [9][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests seizing opportunities with this quality growth leader, as Haier's profitability has gradually improved since 2019. The domestic high-end market position of Casarte is expected to drive product structure optimization, while overseas business restructuring and efficiency improvements are anticipated to support continued growth. The company is expected to achieve net profits of 21.034 billion, 23.807 billion, and 26.207 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.4, 10.1, and 9.2 [10][18]
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