Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-09 09:41Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week, affected by the increase in maintenance devices, the capacity utilization rate in each region mainly decreased, with the national average utilization rate decreasing by 2.0% to 80.5%. The planned maintenance capacity of chlor - alkali in July has decreased. The low profit suppresses the expectation of supply - side improvement in the future [2]. - Demand side: Last week, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.89% to 81.56%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 3.4% to 75.17%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 decreased by 0.13% to 60.18%. Non - aluminum off - season demand is weak, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs [2]. - Inventory: Last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 1.58% to 38.42 tons, which is at a moderately high level in the same period [2]. - Price: The price of liquid chlorine is deeply inverted due to the imbalance between supply and demand, which drags down chlor - alkali profits. The chlor - alkali device is in a slight loss state. The purchase price of Shandong alumina plants has been raised, driving up the market price of 32% liquid caustic soda. The SH2509 contract is slightly at a discount, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 2500 yuan/ton technically [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of caustic soda is 2454 yuan/ton, and the contract closing prices of caustic soda in January and May are 2438 yuan/ton and 2487 yuan/ton respectively. The futures trading volume is 687,008 lots, an increase of 38,580 lots, and the futures position is 255,481 lots, an increase of 3,944 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 1,837 lots, an increase of 16,162 lots [2]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions is 810 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong region is 2531.25 yuan/ton, and the basis of caustic soda is 77 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively, and the price of steam coal is 635 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is - 225 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,020 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 3,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission predicts that China's GDP scale will be about 140 trillion yuan in 2025. From June 27th to July 3rd, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 80.5%, a decrease of 2.0% from the previous period. As of July 3rd, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 384,200 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 1.58% from the previous period and an increase of 2.45% year - on - year [2].