通胀数据点评：6月通胀，三大分化

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of -0.1% and an expectation of 0%[12] - The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, down from a previous value of -3.3% and an expected -3.2%[12] Group 2: Divergence in Price Trends - The PPI for upstream commodities like coal and steel fell, while CPI for food and platinum rose, leading to a contrasting trend between CPI and PPI[3] - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with significant contributions from steel, cement, and coal prices[3] - Core commodity PPI remains at historical lows, reflecting tariff impacts and low utilization rates in downstream capacities[4] Group 3: Consumer Price Index Insights - Core commodity CPI rose by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, driven by consumer stimulus policies[4] - Prices for entertainment durable goods, household textiles, and household appliances increased by 2.0%, 2.0%, and 1.0% respectively[4] - The rental CPI showed weak performance, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, below the historical average of 0.2%[4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Policy measures and recovery in domestic demand are expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, but commodity prices may face downward pressure in the second half of the year[5] - The PPI is anticipated to remain weaker than CPI due to ongoing low capacity utilization rates in downstream industries[5]