Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Consolidation [1] - LPG: Consolidation [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Fluctuation [1] - PTA/PR: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Buy on pullback [1][26] - Soda ash: Short on rebound [1][28] - Caustic soda: Continue to rebound [1][31] - Methanol: Bearish [1][34] - Urea: Short on rebound [1][3] - Asphalt: Short on rebound [1][3] Core Views of the Report - The production increase pressure of crude oil is gradually rising, while there is support in the short - term peak season; LPG follows the cost - end oil price to consolidate; L and PP are in a bearish consolidation state with supply - demand imbalance; PVC is under supply - side pressure; PX is oscillating with supply - demand changing from tight to loose; PTA/PR and ethylene glycol are expected to be bearish due to supply - demand changes; glass has policy expectations but is constrained by reality; soda ash is under high - supply and high - inventory pressure; caustic soda continues to rebound with supply - demand factors; methanol is bearish due to supply and demand feedback; urea has high supply pressure; asphalt has short - term rebound but long - term cost - end pressure [1]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated within a range, with WTI down 1.40%, Brent up 0.82%, and SC up 1.72% [4]. - Basic Logic: OPEC+ decided to increase production in August, but the oil price has strong support below. It is currently in the consumption peak season, and Saudi Arabia raised the official OSP in August. The demand growth rate decreased slightly, and the US inventory data showed mixed changes [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, due to factors such as the trade war and new energy impact, the supply is expected to be in excess, with the price fluctuating between 60 - 70 dollars/barrel. In the short - term, supply pressure is rising, so lightly short positions and buy call options for protection. SC focuses on [510 - 530] [6]. LPG - Market Review: On July 8, the PG main contract closed at 4184 yuan/ton, up 0.12% month - on - month. The spot prices in different regions showed different changes [8]. - Basic Logic: The upstream oil price is the main factor. OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, but there is short - term support. The PDH profit improved slightly, the开工 rate decreased, and the inventory decreased [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the valuation of LPG is high. In the short - term, it is oscillating. Lightly short positions and buy call options for protection. PG focuses on [4130 - 4230] [10]. L - Basic Logic: The downstream demand is in the off - season, and although the cost support improves, the supply - demand is weak. The device maintenance intensity increases, but new devices are planned to be put into production in the medium - long term, so the expectation is weak [12]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebound, and sell - hedging can be considered. L focuses on [7200 - 7300] [12]. PP - Market Review: The closing prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract's position and some prices in the spot market also decreased [14]. - Basic Logic: The downstream demand is weak, but the cost support improves due to the rising international oil price. The supply pressure still exists, and new capacity is planned to be added in the third quarter [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebound, and consider the 9 - 1 positive spread. PP focuses on [7000 - 7100] [14]. PVC - Basic Logic: The production enterprise's start - up change is limited, the inventory pressure increases in the off - season, the cost support weakens, and it is necessary to pay attention to new device production and policy changes [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebound. V focuses on [4800 - 5000] [17]. PX - Market Review: On July 4, the spot price in the East China region was flat, and the futures price of the PX09 contract decreased [18]. - Basic Logic: Domestic and overseas device loads are high. The demand of the PTA side weakens recently but is expected to improve. The supply - demand changes from tight to loose, and the inventory is still high [19]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see in the short - term. PX focuses on [6650 - 6750] [19]. PTA/PR - Market Review: On July 4, the spot price in the East China region decreased, and the futures price of the TA09 contract also decreased [20]. - Basic Logic: The restart of maintenance devices makes the supply abundant. The downstream polyester production reduction and the decline of terminal weaving start - up rate lead to weakening demand. The inventory is in a neutral state, and the processing fee is high with a weakening expectation [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. TA focuses on [4680 - 4750] [22]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On July 5, the spot price in the East China region was flat, and the futures price of the EG09 contract decreased [23]. - Basic Logic: Many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance or temporary shutdown, and the arrival volume is expected to increase. The demand side weakens, and the supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed. The low inventory supports the price [24]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions and pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. EG focuses on [4240 - 4290] [25]. Glass - Market Review: The spot market quotation decreased, and the futures price increased slightly, with the basis narrowing and the warehouse receipt unchanged [26]. - Basic Logic: The policy expects to improve the supply - demand pattern, but the short - term market is restricted by reality. The production capacity fluctuates at a low level, the inventory decreases, and the fuel price and spot price changes have an impact on the market [27]. - Strategy Recommendation: FG focuses on [1020 - 1050] [27]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The heavy - alkali spot price increased, the futures price increased slightly, the main basis remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipt and forecast decreased [29]. - Basic Logic: The policy hype effect weakens, and the soda ash factory accumulates inventory again. The supply is still high, and the inventory is difficult to reduce. The downstream support is average, and the terminal consumption is weak [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: SA focuses on [1170 - 1200] [30]. Caustic Soda - Market Review: The caustic soda spot price increased, the futures price center moved up, the basis strengthened, and the warehouse receipt increased [32]. - Basic Logic: The supply is under pressure due to high - load production and new capacity expectations, but there is a de - stocking expectation in the maintenance season. The demand of the main downstream alumina increases, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support moves down, and the inventory decreases [33]. - Strategy Recommendation: SH focuses on [2400 - 2450] [33]. Methanol - Market Review: On July 4, the spot price in the East China region decreased, and the futures price of the main contract also decreased. The basis and some spreads changed [34]. - Basic Logic: The upstream profit is good, and the domestic and overseas device loads are high. The arrival volume may be low in early July but is expected to start accumulating inventory later. The demand feedback is negative, and the social inventory is accumulating. The cost support is weak [35]. - Strategy Recommendation: MA focuses on [2340 - 2380] [36]. Urea - Basic Logic: The maintenance intensity increases recently, but the daily output is expected to return to a high level. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural demand is also lower than before, but the fertilizer export growth is fast. The cost has some support [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebound and pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. UR focuses on [1740 - 1780] [3]. Asphalt - Basic Logic: The cost - end oil price rebounds in the short - term, and the asphalt inventory decreases, but the long - term cost - end pressure is large. The supply increases, the demand is affected by the weather, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Lightly short positions. BU focuses on [3550 - 3650] [3].
中辉期货日刊-20250709
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-09 09:51