银行理财月度跟踪-20250709

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The bank wealth management market has seen a decline in scale at the beginning of the year due to bond market volatility and a shift of investment funds to the recovering equity market. However, a recovery in the second quarter is expected as the bond market improves and deposit rates decline, driving savings into wealth management products [6][12] - Cash management product yields have been trending downward, with the average annualized yield for June at 1.49%, down 4 basis points from the previous month. This decline is attributed to a generally loose monetary policy and a decrease in the yields of various asset types [7][15] - The overall net value of fixed-income wealth management products remains stable, with a low break-even rate of approximately 1.1% in June, indicating a strong performance in the market [10][27] Summary by Sections Wealth Management Market Overview - The wealth management scale decreased from 29 trillion yuan in 2021 to 26.8 trillion yuan in 2023, with a projected recovery to 29.95 trillion yuan in 2024. Public fund scales are expected to grow from 26.03 trillion yuan in 2022 to 32.83 trillion yuan in 2024 [12] - The decline in wealth management scale in the first quarter was due to bond market fluctuations and a shift of funds to equities, but a recovery is anticipated in the second quarter [12] Wealth Management Product Yields - Cash management product yields have decreased, with the average annualized yield for June at 1.49%, down 34 basis points from December of the previous year. The average yield for pure fixed-income products was 2.49%, down 0.09 percentage points from the previous month [15][17] - Fixed-income plus wealth management product yields have increased, with short-term yields rising by 0.43 percentage points to 3.07% and medium-term yields increasing by 92 percentage points to 3.73% [9][19] Wealth Management Product Break-even Rates - The break-even rate for fixed-income plus wealth management products remains low, with only 401 products having a net value below 1 yuan, indicating a strong market stability. The break-even rate for pure fixed-income products is nearly zero [10][27]