“反内卷”与新一轮供给侧改革解读

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The new round of "Supply - side Reform" centered around "Anti - involution" mainly focuses on the disorderly competition in the mid - downstream manufacturing and emerging industries. It aims to build a unified large market, promote economic circulation, optimize supply quality through reform, and ultimately achieve industrial upgrading and high - quality development. The regulation requires more complex institutional innovation and market mechanisms, and involves industry self - discipline, improvement of laws and regulations, and standardization of local government behavior. After being set by the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, it will be a key mid - term policy task, and its effect release may be milder than the previous round of supply - side reform [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the Previous Round of "Supply - side Reform" 1.1 Progress of the Previous Round of "Supply - side Reform" The policy of reducing over - capacity started to appear in 2013. In 2015, "Supply - side Structural Reform" was first proposed, and in 2016, a more systematic "Three Reductions, One Lowering, and One Filling" framework was formed. The scope of over - capacity reduction expanded in 2017, and policies for cost reduction and de - leveraging were also introduced [7][8]. 1.2 Characteristics of the Previous Round of "Supply - side Reform" The tasks of "Three Reductions, One Lowering, and One Filling" formed a systematic policy framework, with over - capacity reduction in upstream resource products like steel and coal being the core. There were clear over - capacity reduction targets and supporting measures for employment stability [10][12]. 1.3 Effects of the Previous Round of "Supply - side Reform" From 2016 - 2018, it exceeded the over - capacity reduction targets for steel and coal. Raw material prices ended their long - term slump, PPI turned positive in September 2016, and the profitability of enterprises was restored [13]. 2. Connotation and Goals of the New Round of "Supply - side Reform" - "Anti - involution" On July 1, 2025, the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting and an article in Qiushi Journal raised the expectation of a new round of "Supply - side Reform" through "Anti - involution". It aims to solve the problem of low prices in some fields caused by unfair competition and local protectionism, covering both traditional and emerging industries [15][18]. 3. Timeline of "Anti - involution" Policy Introduction The concept of "Anti - involution" was first proposed in the Politburo meeting in July 2024. After the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting on July 1, 2025, it became more prominent. Since June 2025, industry organizations have accelerated the implementation of "Anti - involution" policies [20][21]. 4. Differences between the Two Rounds of "Supply - side Reform" 4.1 Different Targets for Over - capacity Reduction The previous round targeted the over - capacity of upstream traditional resource products, while the current round focuses on the over - competition in emerging industries and the mid - downstream manufacturing industries [22][23]. 4.2 Different Ownership of Over - capacity Enterprises In the previous round, state - owned enterprises in upstream resource industries accounted for a high proportion. In this round, private enterprises in mid - downstream and emerging industries such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles account for a higher proportion, and market - oriented methods can be better used for over - capacity reduction [28]. 4.3 Different Policy Purposes and Implementation Methods The previous round repaired the deflation environment and improved corporate profits, while this round aims to build a unified large market, promote economic circulation, and achieve high - quality development. The previous round mainly used administrative measures, while this round requires more complex institutional innovation and market mechanisms [32]. 5. Outlook for the Follow - up of the Current Round of "Anti - involution" The "Anti - involution" policy is expected to be continuously implemented and may become an important mid - term policy direction. Policies are expected to be more diversified, legalized, and market - oriented, and supply - side policy intensification and demand - side support will go hand in hand [35][36]. 6. Research Feedback and Impact Outlook of Some Commodities on the "Anti - involution" Policy The previous round of supply - side reform effectively reduced over - capacity in upstream resource industries, and their current capacity utilization rates are not low. The marginal increment of this "Anti - involution" lies in emerging industries. However, there are difficulties in policy implementation in emerging industries, and the effect release may be weaker than the previous round [40][41].