6月通胀数据点评：CPI同比转正，PPI降幅扩大

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June, China's CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[1] - The food item CPI recorded a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while non-food items increased by 0.1%, both showing a 0.1 percentage point rise from prior values[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 0.7%, also an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI in June decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, a further decline of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[14] - The PPI's month-on-month change was a decrease of 0.4%, consistent with the prior value[14] - Factors contributing to PPI pressure include falling raw material prices, increased green electricity leading to lower energy prices, and tariffs affecting global trade[16] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The divergence in CPI and PPI trends suggests a need for stimulus policies to boost domestic demand and sustain inflation recovery[4] - The upcoming Politburo meeting in Q3 may present an opportunity for new policies, though the impact is expected to be limited[4] - CPI is projected to maintain positive growth in Q3, while the likelihood of PPI turning positive within the year remains low[4] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include weaker-than-expected consumer recovery, potential economic recession, and unforeseen impacts from tariffs on related industries[19]