玉米淀粉日报-20250709

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn planting is finished, and the price is weak. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the US corn is in a bottom - shock state, and weather factors may be used for speculation. The import profit of foreign corn is high, and the domestic corn spot is expected to be relatively stable in the short term but may continue to decline due to upcoming auctions. The starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream stocking, and the short - term decline space of the 09 starch contract is limited [5][7][8] - The short - term trading strategy for corn is that the domestic 09 corn will have a narrow - range shock. For those with spot, they can short the 09 corn, and the spread between 09 corn and starch can be expanded when it is low. For options, spot - holding enterprises can sell corn call options [9][10][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - C2601 closed at 2234, down 7 (-0.31%), with a trading volume of 27,820 (-42.68%) and an open interest of 128,391 (5.06%) - C2505 closed at 2264, down 4 (-0.18%), with a trading volume of 4,683 (-58.63%) and an open interest of 24,038 (8.57%) - C2509 closed at 2319, down 2 (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 404,273 (-34.92%) and an open interest of 994,428 (0.81%) - CS2601 closed at 2620, down 7 (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 2,950 (-32.17%) and an open interest of 8,301 (11.15%) - CS2505 closed at 2647, down 3 (-0.11%), with a trading volume of 35 (-28.57%) and an open interest of 228 (-2.15%) - CS2509 closed at 2677, up 1 (0.04%), with a trading volume of 92,255 (-24.94%) and an open interest of 231,044 (4.01%) [3] 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn: The current quotes in Qinggang, Jiajishenghua, Zhuchengxingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port are 2270, 2260, 2534, 2470, 2380, 2490, and 2460 respectively. The price changes are -10, 170, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 respectively, and the basis is -49, -59, 215, 151, 61, 171, 141 respectively - Starch: The current quotes of Longfeng, COFCO, Cargill, Yufeng, Jinyumi, Zhuchengxingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade are 2800, 2800, 2850, 3020, 2950, 2980, and 2960 respectively. The price changes are 0, -50, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 respectively, and the basis is 153, 153, 203, 373, 303, 333, 313 respectively [3] 3.1.3 Spread - Corn inter - period: C01 - C05 spread is -30 (-3), C05 - C09 spread is -55 (-2), C09 - C01 spread is 85 (5) - Starch inter - period: CS01 - CS05 spread is -27 (-4), CS05 - CS09 spread is -30 (-4), CS09 - CS01 spread is 57 (8) - Cross - variety: CS09 - C09 spread is 358 (3), CS01 - C01 spread is 386 (0), CS05 - C05 spread is 383 (1) [3] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn planting is finished, and the price is weak. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, it is in a bottom - shock state, and weather factors may be used for speculation. The import profit of foreign corn is high, and the August import price from Brazil is 1943 yuan. The northern port flat - hatch price is weak, and the northeast corn spot price has declined. The supply in North China has decreased, and the corn spot price is stable. The price difference between northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat price in North China is weak, and the price difference between wheat and corn is small, so wheat continues to be a substitute. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is high. Recently, imported corn has been auctioned, and brown rice is about to be auctioned, so the corn spot price will continue to decline. It is expected that the North China corn will have strong support at around 2450 yuan/ton, and Heilongjiang corn will have support at around 2220 yuan/ton [5][7] 3.2.2 Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2900 yuan, and the northeast starch spot price is also stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has increased to 133.7 million tons, an increase of 2.4 million tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 2.14% and a year - on - year increase of 26.97%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is relatively strong, and the price difference between corn and starch spot is low. In the medium - to - long - term, due to the weak demand for starch, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. It is expected that the short - term decline space of the 09 starch contract is limited [8] 3.3 Corn Options - The option strategy is that spot - holding enterprises can sell corn call options [13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include figures such as the spot price of corn in various regions, the basis of the corn 09 contract, the 9 - 1 spread of corn, the 9 - 1 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 09 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 09 contract [15][17][21]