贵金属周报（黄金与白银）：债务上限提高后美国财政部开始发债，美联储降息时点延迟但央行持续购金-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The delay in the expected timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the easing of geopolitical risks, the expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world may cause precious metal prices to weaken first and then strengthen. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Central Bank Policies and Economic Data - The US Senate's "Great Beauty" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, and the fiscal deficit may expand by over $3 trillion. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is almost zero, but the expected timing of interest rate cuts remains in September/October/December. [3] - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2%. The market expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates 1 - 2 times by the end of 2025. [3] - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in May. The market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025. [3] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%. It may start to reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of an interest rate hike by the end of 2025. [4] 3.2 US Debt and Financial Market Conditions - The US unpaid public debt totaled $36.58 trillion and increased compared to last week. The debt ceiling will be raised by $5 trillion in the next decade, and the fiscal deficit may increase by $3.4 trillion. [7] - As of July 2, the Fed's bank reserve balance was $3.26 trillion, a decrease from last week; the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale was $631.1 billion, an increase from last week; and the US Treasury cash account was $372.2 billion, an increase from last week. [10] - The Fed's rediscount (seasonal) loans to commercial banks increased compared to last week. [11] - The New York Fed's survey showed that consumers' one - year inflation expectation in June decreased to 3%. However, the expected expansion of tax cuts and fiscal deficits by the Trump administration, combined with the Fed's future interest rate cut expectations, have raised the medium - and long - term inflation expectations in the US. [16] - The US medium - and long - term Treasury yields increased. The difference between the yields of long - term and medium - and short - term Treasuries also increased. [18][24] - The US OFR financial stress index decreased compared to last week. [27] - The weekly rate of loans and leases of US commercial banks decreased. [31] - The annual rate of the US Redbook commercial retail sales index was 5.90%, indicating that the US consumer industry remained prosperous. [36] - The fixed mortgage rates for 15 - year and 30 - year terms in the US decreased compared to last week, causing the US MBA mortgage application activity index to increase. The number of new and existing home sales in the US in May decreased compared to the previous month. [39] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US was 233,000, lower than expected and the previous value, but still within a reasonable range. The number of continued jobless claims was 1.964 million, higher than expected but lower than the previous value, indicating a weakening demand for labor in the US job market. [43] 3.3 International Exchange Rates and Bond Yield Spreads - The difference in yields between US and German 10 - year Treasuries increased. [47] - The exchange rates of the euro and the pound against the US dollar began to decline. [49] 3.4 Precious Metal Market Conditions - The volatility index of US gold ETFs decreased. [53] - The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX gold futures increased. The holdings of SPDR gold ETF decreased compared to last week. [56][58] - The total inventory of COMEX and SHFE gold decreased compared to last week. [60] - The domestic gold futures (spot) price premium was higher than the 75th percentile of the past five years (higher than the 50th percentile of the past five years and basically within a reasonable range). It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign gold. [67] - The basis between London and COMEX gold was positive and basically within a reasonable range, while the basis between the gold exchange and SHFE was negative and at a relatively low level. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of lightly testing long positions in the SHFE gold basis at low prices in the short term. [70] - The spreads between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX and SHFE gold were negative and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the monthly spreads of SHFE gold. [74] - The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX silver futures increased. The holdings of iShare silver ETF increased compared to last week. [76][78] - The total inventory of COMEX, SHFE, and SGE silver decreased compared to last week. [80] - The domestic silver futures (spot) price was between the 50th - 75th percentiles of the past five years and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign silver. [86] - The basis of COMEX silver was negative and basically within a reasonable range, while the basis of Shanghai silver was negative and at a relatively low level. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of lightly testing long positions in the SHFE silver basis at low prices in the short term. [90] - The spreads between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX and Shanghai silver were negative and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the near - and far - month spreads of SHFE silver. [94] - The "gold - to - silver ratio" in London LME and US COMEX (SHFE) was slightly lower than the 90th percentile of the past five years. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of lightly testing short positions in the "gold - to - silver ratio" at high prices in the short term. [97] - The "gold - to - oil ratio" and "gold - to - copper ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) were far higher than the 90th percentile of the past five years. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of lightly testing short positions in the "gold - to - oil ratio" and "gold - to - copper ratio" at high prices in the short term. [101]