市场主流观点汇总-20250709

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [2] - The strategy views and investment logics in the report are based on the publicly released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change compared to the closing price of the previous Friday [2] Market Data Commodities - Positive weekly changes were seen in螺纹钢 (2.57%), 铁矿石 (2.23%), 生猪 (2.14%), 白银 (1.44%), 黄金 (1.39%), 棕榈油 (1.15%), 原油 (1.00%), 焦炭 (0.81%), 玻璃 (0.69%), 豆粕 (0.27%), 铝 (0.27%), 甲醇 (0.25%), and 乙二醇 (0.14%) - Negative weekly changes were observed in 铜 (-0.24%), PVC (-0.26%), 玉米 (-1.30%), and PTA (-1.42%) [3] A - shares - Positive weekly changes were recorded in 沪深300 (1.54%), 上证50 (1.21%), and 中证500 (0.81%) [3] Overseas Stocks - Positive weekly changes were seen in 标普500 (1.72%), 纳斯达克指数 (1.62%), and 富时100 (0.27%) - Negative weekly changes were observed in 法国CAC40 (-0.85%), 日经225 (-1.52%), and 恒生指数 (-0.28%) [3][4] Bonds - Negative weekly changes were recorded in 中国国债10 - year (-0.06%), 中国国债2 - year (-0.85%), and 中国国债5 - year (-1.52%) [4] Foreign Exchange - Negative weekly changes were observed in 欧元兑美元 (-0.48%), 美元中间价 (-0.91%), and 美元指数 (-1.49%) [4] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: 6 - month PMI data improved marginally; last week's net financing purchase funds continued to increase; the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting emphasized "anti - involution" in the construction of a unified market, raising expectations for a new round of supply - side reform; industrial shareholder shareholding reductions increased while company buybacks significantly increased; average daily trading volume was 1.44 trillion yuan, slightly higher than last week - Bearish logics: US employment data was strong, reducing short - term interest rate cut expectations; after the small - and medium - cap stocks rose, the market's willingness to reduce holdings was strong; current indices are approaching last October's highs, and valuations are higher than historical averages; Trump pressured countries on tariffs again, increasing uncertainties [5] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: Monetary policy is expected to be loose, maintaining a relatively loose liquidity environment; government bond supply pressure is controllable, and the issuance rhythm is stable; in the first and middle of the month, the capital market is seasonally loose, and DR007 remains in a low range; weak fundamental recovery supports the bond market - Bearish logics: June PMI rebounded month - on - month, showing economic resilience; long - term bond prices are high, and more momentum is needed to break through previous highs; fiscal policy efforts may drive a phased improvement in economic data [5] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The Northern Hemisphere is still in the peak oil consumption season; crude oil inventories continue to decline; Russia is gradually implementing production cuts; there may be a new round of fiscal expansion due to the US tax - cut bill; oil price downside risks have been largely released after a significant previous decline - Bearish logics: OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, and the pace is faster than expected; the Israel - Iran conflict has ended, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to decline; during the autumn maintenance of global refineries, a supply - demand mismatch may lead to a significant increase in crude oil inventories; crude oil supply in North America has increased [6] Agricultural Products Sector Palm Oil - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The US 45Z Act was passed, boosting the demand for biodiesel, soybean oil, and palm oil; India's palm oil imports soared by 61% in June, showing strong demand; institutions expect a decline in Malaysia's palm oil production and an increase in exports in June, with a slight expected decline in inventory; Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July, indicating a strong willingness to support prices - Bearish logics: The arrival volume of palm oil in China has increased, the basis has weakened, and import profits are inverted; global tariff disputes have intensified, and macro risks have dampened market sentiment; oil mills have high operating rates, and the accumulation of soybean oil inventory suppresses the overall performance of oils and fats [6] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The macro - environment has improved, boosting market sentiment and aluminum prices; the recovery of the monthly spread shows strong industrial support under low inventories; the increase in the proportion of aluminum water in the industry delays the accumulation of visible inventories; aluminum ingot inventories remain at a low level, providing support for prices - Bearish logics: The social inventory of aluminum ingots has shown an inflection point of accumulation, weakening the support; the processing fee of downstream aluminum rods has fallen to negative, which may trigger a negative feedback in the industrial chain; high aluminum prices have suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, and the spot price has turned to a discount; the demand for photovoltaic components and exports has shown a downward inflection point; terminal demand has entered the off - season, and orders have significantly declined [7] Chemicals Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The spot market has formed a positive feedback, and price increases in areas such as Shahe have driven the sentiment of taking positions in the spot and futures markets; the expectation of seasonal improvement in demand in the second half of the year has increased, and the marginal improvement in apparent demand is evident; prices are at a low level, and there is a need for valuation repair - Bearish logics: Warehouse receipts in Hubei are suppressing the futures market, and the high - inventory pressure has not been alleviated; the glass produced by previously ignited production lines is gradually coming onto the market, slightly increasing supply pressure; the sustainability of inventory hoarding by the trading end is questionable, and there may be another round of destocking after the mid - stream replenishment; the weak trend in the real estate sector has not changed clearly, and insufficient terminal orders are suppressing demand elasticity [7] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 4 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 2 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the rising debt risk have increased the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset; global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, and the willingness to further increase holdings in the future is high; there is a potential downward revision risk in non - farm payroll data and a possible rebound in the unemployment rate, strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts; high uncertainty in trade policies and the trend of anti - globalization support safe - haven assets - Bearish logics: The tariff negotiation has been postponed to August 1st, leading to a temporary rebound in market risk appetite; the US dollar index may rebound after a continuous decline, suppressing the price of gold; the easing of the Middle East situation has weakened the geopolitical premium, and speculative long - positions have taken profits [8] Black Metals Sector Coking Coal - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: Downstream coking and steel enterprises are replenishing inventories periodically, and coking coal trading is good; the "anti - involution" policy has raised expectations for supply - side reform, boosting market sentiment; the customs clearance of Mongolian coal is low, and prices have rebounded; the inventory at ports and mines has decreased well, and spot prices are stable with a slight increase - Bearish logics: Previously shut - down coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the marginal increase in supply is suppressing price increases; after the spot price rebounds, the pressure from hedging positions appears, and the basis repair may limit the upward movement; after the fourth round of price cuts for coke, the futures market has priced in the expected price increase; the rebound is a repair of low valuations, and further upward movement requires improvement in demand [8]