公用事业行业跟踪报告：火电业绩加速修复，水风光或承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2][8] Core Views - The overall profit of the electricity and heat production and supply industry reached 114.8 billion yuan in April-May 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [2] - The report anticipates that the decline in electricity prices will narrow while the decline in coal prices will expand, leading to further growth in thermal power performance compared to Q1 2025 [2] - Clean energy performance may face pressure due to overall resource scarcity, with expectations for a recovery in nuclear power generation in Q2 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - The average electricity price in Guangdong for Q2 2025 is 0.374 yuan/kWh, down 0.046 yuan/kWh year-on-year [2] - The average coal price at Qinhuangdao Port for Q2 2025 is 633 yuan/ton, down 214 yuan/ton year-on-year [2] - The report predicts a significant increase in net profit for companies like Jiantou Energy and Jingneng Power, with year-on-year growth rates of 188% and 52% respectively [2] Hydropower - The inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges in Q2 2025 are 1.2 and 1.0 cubic meters per second, down 12.6% and 17.1% year-on-year [2] - The report expects a slight differentiation in hydropower company performance due to reduced water flow, with projected net profit growth rates for companies like Yangtze Power and Huaneng Hydropower at 3% and -3% respectively [2] Renewable Energy - New installations for wind and solar power in April-May 2025 reached 32.12 million kW and 138.13 million kW, showing year-on-year increases of 277.2% and 107.2% [2] - The report anticipates that the performance of green energy companies will be under pressure, with expected year-on-year declines for Longyuan Power and Funiu Co. at 4% and 5% respectively [2] Nuclear Power - In April 2025, the State Council approved 10 new nuclear power units, indicating a normalization of approvals [2] - The report projects a year-on-year increase of 10.8% in nuclear power generation for China Nuclear Power in Q2 2025, with net profit growth expected at 3% [2]