能源日报-20250709

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the energy market, including crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and liquefied petroleum gas. It assesses the supply and demand dynamics, price trends, and investment opportunities in each sector [2][3][4]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC08 contract up 1.76%. The US EIA inventory unexpectedly increased by 712,800 barrels, and OPEC+ continued its rapid production increase strategy, strengthening the supply-demand loosening expectation, especially in the fourth quarter. However, in the third quarter, oil consumption during the peak season supports physical crude oil purchases, and the supply disruption of European diesel leads to expectations of refining profit recovery. The final outcome of the US reciprocal tariffs, postponed to August 1st, is likely to be weaker than in early April. The Middle East geopolitical risks related to the Iran nuclear dispute remain. The report maintains a view that crude oil prices will rise from the bottom and fluctuate strongly in the third quarter, and short-selling strategies should be considered after the peak season's impact weakens [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the rise in oil futures, followed by LU, while FU was relatively weak. For high-sulfur fuel oil, demand from ship bunkering and deep processing was low, and the summer power generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa did not boost it. The supply risk was removed as the Middle East conflict eased, and both the single price and crack spread of FU continued to weaken. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the previous strong coking profit led to limited short-term supply pressure due to the diversion effect, and the strengthening of the Singapore diesel crack spread since late June also provided some support. However, the demand lacked a clear driver, and LU's trend mainly followed crude oil, with the short-term crack spread expected to fluctuate [2]. Asphalt - In June, the actual refinery output exceeded the production plan by 100,000 tons (+4.3%), and the commercial inventory shifted from destocking to stocking in late June, with a stocking increase of 24,000 tons. The unplanned increase was the key variable that broke the asphalt destocking pattern. In July, the shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in shipment volume since the beginning of the year dropped from 8% to 7%. The continuous high temperature and increased rainfall in many places are expected to delay the overall demand recovery. The sales volume of road rollers increased significantly year-on-year from January to May, and the third quarter is a crucial observation window for asphalt demand recovery. Currently, the single price trend of asphalt mainly follows crude oil, but the weakening fundamentals limit the upside space of BU [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The international market supply is generally loose, and although crude oil has strengthened recently, the LPG price has remained stable. Last week, new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs continued to repair the PDH gross profit. Attention should be paid to the subsequent rebound rhythm of PDH operating rates. The supply pressure persists in summer, and the decline in import costs limits the upward momentum of the futures price, maintaining a weak and fluctuating trend [4].