碳酸锂日报：资金博弈推升碳酸锂震荡，供需矛盾制约上行空间-20250709

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market may continue its volatile upward trend in the short term, but its upward space is still limited by the oversupply on the supply side. The fundamental contradiction remains prominent, and the growth in new energy vehicle sales has not yet translated into restocking momentum for the material sector. The midstream continues to use the customer-supplied model to avoid exposure risks. Additionally, the expansion of the spot discount to over a thousand yuan will attract arbitrage funds, and attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback under inventory pressure. Key factors to monitor include the production schedule of cathode materials and the seasonal production rhythm of Qinghai Salt Lakes [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Main Contract and Basis: On July 8, the main contract of lithium carbonate was reported at 63,880 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.35% from the previous day. The basis continued to weaken, and the spot discount to the futures widened to -1,080 yuan, indicating a divergence in the expectation of improved long-term supply and demand [1] - Position and Trading Volume: The position of the main contract increased significantly by 15,500 lots in a single day, and the trading volume soared by 155.69% to 545,000 lots, reaching a new high in the past week, intensifying the game between long and short funds [1] 2. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: Short-term disturbing factors have increased. The capacity utilization rate of lithium salt plants decreased by 1 percentage point to 61.8% month-on-month, but the pressure of medium-term supply expansion still exists. The raw material prices remained stalemate, with the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remaining flat in the past two weeks [2] - Demand Side: There was a marginal improvement but limited elasticity. In June, the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.071 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and the penetration rate exceeded 52.7%, with terminal data exceeding expectations. However, the transmission to the cathode material sector was limited. Ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate only saw a slight increase, the cell prices remained stable across the board, and midstream procurement was still mainly based on long-term agreements, with a low willingness to replenish inventory with spot orders [2] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The inventory accumulation pressure in the industrial chain continued. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1,510 tons month-on-month to 138,347 tons, rising for four consecutive weeks [2] 3. Market Summary - The lithium carbonate market may continue its volatile upward pattern in the short term, but the upward space is still limited by the oversupply on the supply side. Attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback under inventory pressure, and key factors to monitor include the production schedule of cathode materials and the seasonal production rhythm of Qinghai Salt Lakes [3] 4. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The main contract of lithium carbonate, battery-grade lithium carbonate, power-type ternary materials, and power-type lithium iron phosphate all saw slight increases on July 8 compared to the previous day, while the prices of lithium concentrate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and various types of cells remained unchanged [5] - The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 1 percentage point to 61.8% compared to July 4, and the inventory increased by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons [5] 5. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Spot Market Quotations: On July 8, the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price was 62,788 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 306 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, and that of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 61,300 yuan/ton, both increasing by 350 yuan/ton. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to oscillate upward. In the future, the price may maintain a low-level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the change in actual demand increments [6] - Downstream Consumption Situation: In June, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 1.071 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and the wholesale volume was 1.259 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28% [7] - Industry News: Multiple companies announced production expansion and technological transformation plans, including the construction of the "Mamico Salt Lake Mining Project" by Tibet Ali Mamico Mining Development Co., Ltd., the technological transformation project of a 25,000-ton lithium salt production line by Zhongkuang Resources (Jiangxi) Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., etc [8][9] 6. Appendix: Large Model Inference Process - The futures price of lithium carbonate has rebounded, but it is constrained by high inventory and weak demand, and may maintain a low-level volatile trend in the future. Attention should be paid to whether there is a substantial improvement in subsequent demand or more adjustments on the supply side [30][31]