冠通每日交易策略-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Overall Market: As of July 9, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with polysilicon up over 5%, coking coal up nearly 4%, and several other commodities up over 1% or 2%. Some contracts like international copper, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai nickel declined over 1%. Stock index futures mostly fell slightly, while treasury bond futures were mixed [7]. - Commodity - Specific: - Coking Coal: The futures market is strong, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and coking enterprises have a price - increase expectation. However, the supply - demand surplus situation has not been reversed, and the upside space is expected to be limited, with short - term trading likely to be volatile and slightly strong [3]. - Copper: The US copper tariff has been finalized, but the implementation time is uncertain. The supply shortage expectation may improve, and the demand is expected to enter the off - season. Under the current market sentiment of expecting price drops, caution is advised when short - selling [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and deviates from the fundamentals. The supply is still abundant, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term. If the demand recovers as expected, the price may be boosted [10]. - Crude Oil: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has significantly decreased, but the subsequent development of the situation still needs attention. OPEC + plans to increase production, and the oil price is expected to trade in a range [12]. - Asphalt: The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and the inventory is at a low level. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. - PP: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with attention to the development of the global trade war [15]. - Plastic: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with attention to the development of the global trade war [16]. - PVC: The supply is expected to decline slightly, the demand has not improved substantially, the inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with a strategy of shorting at high prices [18]. - Soybean Meal: The short - term inventory pressure is rising, the demand is weak, and it is expected to trade in a range in July, with attention to oil refinery ship purchases and imported soybean arrivals [19][20]. - Soybean Oil: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price may be affected by the oil price. It is necessary to pay attention to the US biodiesel policy [21]. - Rebar: The supply contraction is less than expected, the demand has not increased significantly, the inventory may accumulate, and it is expected to trade in a narrow range [22][23]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue to trade in a volatile manner [24]. - Urea: Affected by the improvement of the Indian tender price, the domestic market sentiment is high. Although the demand is weak, the inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term, with attention to export policies [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Hot - Spot Varieties - Coking Coal: Opened high and closed high, with prices rising. The supply is affected by imports and domestic production, and the demand is affected by downstream profits and production. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term [3]. - Copper: The US plans to impose tariffs on imported copper, affecting the price. The supply is expected to improve, and the demand is expected to enter the off - season. Caution is advised when short - selling [4][5]. - Lithium Carbonate: Opened low and closed high, with prices rising. The supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals [10]. - Crude Oil: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has decreased, OPEC + plans to increase production, and the price is expected to trade in a range [11][12]. 3.2 Other Commodities - Asphalt: The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by funds and weather, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. - PP: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range [15]. - Plastic: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range [16]. - PVC: The supply is expected to decline slightly, the demand has not improved substantially, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with a strategy of shorting at high prices [18]. - Soybean Meal: The short - term inventory pressure is rising, the demand is weak, and it is expected to trade in a range in July [19][20]. - Soybean Oil: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price may be affected by the oil price [21]. - Rebar: The supply contraction is less than expected, the demand has not increased significantly, and it is expected to trade in a narrow range [22][23]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue to trade in a volatile manner [24]. - Urea: Affected by the Indian tender price, the domestic market sentiment is high. It is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term [27].