南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250709

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - and long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated. There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback cycle of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again" and a stepped upward chain of "futures price increase - production capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase", but it will eventually return to the oversupply fundamentals. The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will rise in the early third quarter due to improved macro sentiment, supply disruptions, and better - than - expected off - season performance; it will fall in the fourth quarter due to the end of technical upgrades and increased production. Strategy suggestions are to conduct a long - short spread trade between LC2509 and LC2511 and to short LC2511 at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - Price Range Forecast: The price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is expected to fluctuate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.1% and a historical percentile of 25.9% over three years [2]. - Daily Changes: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract was 64,400 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan or 0.81% from the previous day; trading volume was 350,125 lots, down 195,280 lots or 35.80%; open interest was 326,895 lots, down 11,139 lots or 3.30%. For the LC2511 contract, the closing price was 64,080 yuan/ton, up 540 yuan or 0.85%; trading volume was 30,581 lots, down 24,591 lots or 44.57%; open interest was 94,359 lots, down 746 lots or 0.78% [9]. - Monthly Spread Changes: The LC08 - 11 spread was 600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 14.29%; the LC09 - 11 spread was 320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 6%; the LC11 - 12 spread was - 100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or - 50% [12]. 3.2 Spot Data - Lithium Ore Quotes: The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) was 1,385 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 2.21%; for Li2O: 3 - 4%, it was 2,515 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 1.41%; for Li2O: 5 - 5.5%, it was 4,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 1.02%. The average price of lithium spodumene (Li2O: 6%, Brazil CIF) was 670 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars or 0.75%; for Australian ore CIF, it was also 670 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars or 0.75%; for fastmarkets, it was 670 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars or 1.51%. The average price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6 - 7%) was 4,500 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan or 1.69%. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1741, down 0.0008 or - 0.01% [16]. - Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Quotes: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,700 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan or 0.65%; for battery - grade lithium carbonate, it was 63,300 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan or 0.64%. The average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide was 51,970 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 0.1%; for battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), it was 62,620 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 0.08%; for battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea), it was 8.05 US dollars/kg, down 0.05 US dollars or - 0.62%; for fastmarkets, it was 8.05 US dollars/kg, unchanged [20]. - Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads: The battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread was 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread was - 280 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan or - 333.33%; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan and South Korea and the domestic price was 114.87 yuan/ton, down 284.99 yuan or - 71.27% [24]. - Downstream Quotes: The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 30,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.32%; for low - end energy - storage type, it was 27,280 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.33%; for mid - to - high - end energy - storage type, it was 29,520 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan or 0.32%. The average price of lithium manganese iron phosphate was 43,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.12%. For ternary materials, the 523 (consumer - type) was 105,960 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0%; the 622 (consumer - type) was 111,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 811 (power - type) was 142,780 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.01%. The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 51,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. For electrolyte, the price for lithium iron phosphate use was 17,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; for iron - lithium energy - storage use, it was 17,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; for iron - lithium power use, it was 19,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; for ternary power use, it was 21,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [26][27]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Basis Quotes: For the LC2507 contract, the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy was 400 yuan/ton; Tianqi Lithium Industry, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianyi Lithium Industry were 500 yuan/ton; Jiangxi Jiuling and Yongxing Materials were 300 yuan/ton; Zhongkuang Resources was 400 yuan/ton; Ruifu Lithium Industry was 100 yuan/ton; Zhejiang New Era was 0 yuan/ton; for Lanke Lithium Industry (quasi - electric), it was - 300 yuan/ton; for industrial - grade, it was - 400 yuan/ton. The comprehensive basis quote for the four materials was 162.5 yuan/ton [30]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: The total number of warehouse receipts was 13,281, an increase of 626 from the previous day. There were changes in the warehouse receipts of some warehouses, such as an increase of 652 in Jiuling Lithium Industry (Yichun Yifeng), a decrease of 180 in Jiangsu Bennigang Wharf, etc [35]. 3.4 Cost and Profit The report presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the theoretical delivery profit and import profit trends of lithium carbonate, but no specific data values are summarized here [33].