Report Title Nanhua Log Industry Risk Management Daily Report, July 9, 2025 - Spot Price of Taicang Delivery Goods Weakens [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The current cost of logs has support, but the spot digestion ability may face certain pressure, and the log futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 820 yuan per cubic meter, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a historical percentile of 67.4% over the past 3 years [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: With high log import volume and high inventory, and concerns about price drops, enterprises with long - spot exposure can short log futures (lg2509) at 800 - 820 yuan per cubic meter, with a hedging ratio of 25% to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, enterprises with short - spot exposure can buy log futures (lg2509) at 750 - 800 yuan per cubic meter, with a hedging ratio of 25% to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. Core Contradictions in Delivery - The first - month delivery of the 07 contract is in progress. Manual and intelligent measurement are randomly matched. The intelligent measurement has a larger over - measurement rate, estimated at a 2% range. The delivery efficiency has gradually improved, with manual measurement achieving a pre - measurement mechanism, increasing the delivery rate to about 40 - 45 minutes per lot. The actual delivery cost at Taicang Xinhai Wharf is 7 yuan per cubic meter. Sellers may face friction costs due to non - standard log shapes, which can be reduced by paying sorting fees or accepted as random costs. If the goods are of good quality, the random cost can be less than 10 yuan per cubic meter. Buyers without direct processing ability need to sell the received logs at a discount to processing plants [3]. Spot Market - The price of 6 - meter medium - grade A logs in Taicang dropped by 20 yuan to 750 yuan per cubic meter. The latest CFR quote has a maximum of 117 US dollars, increasing import costs, but the possibility of weakening ocean freight makes the sustainability of this quote uncertain. On the demand side, the daily outbound volume remains high. Although the real estate market is weak, furniture consumption provides support, and the national subsidy policy boosts the demand for pallets in related fields. The ongoing delivery process allows downstream processing plants to continuously absorb delivery goods for replenishment. If the absorption willingness weakens in the future, the spot price may continue to decline. Overseas shipment volume shows no obvious weakening, and there is still pressure on future arrivals [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: Traders have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; import costs continue to rise; the overall sentiment in the commodity market has improved [8]. - Negative Factors: The outflow of delivery goods from the 07 contract suppresses the spot price; the continuous increase in foreign shipment volume [8]. Spot and Basis - The report provides spot prices, price changes, spot over - measurement conversions,主力 contract prices, delivery premiums and discounts, and basis calculations for different log specifications in different ports on July 9, 2025. The formula for the converted basis is: Converted basis = Spot price after over - measurement (108%) - Main contract price ± Premium or discount [8][9]. Log Data Overview - Supply: The imported volume of radiata pine in May 2025 was 169 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 4 million cubic meters and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. - Inventory: As of July 4, 2025, the national port inventory was 323 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 13 million cubic meters. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,926,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 85,000 cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,093,911 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 20,589 cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 40%. - Demand: As of July 4, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 6.69 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 million cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 32.7%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 3.9 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.35 million cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 60.5%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 2.15 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 million cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 22.9%. - Profit: As of July 11, 2025, the import profit of radiata pine was - 73 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan. The import profit of spruce was - 38 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan [10].
南华原木产业风险管理日报：太仓交割品现货价格走弱-20250709
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-09 12:51