铜关税超预期，市场急速反映

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - US to impose tariffs of 25% - 40% on imports from 14 countries starting August 1, 2025, and Trump plans to add a 50% tariff on imported copper, higher than market expectations, with no implementation time announced, leading to a sharp rise in US copper prices and a fall in prices in other regions [2][48]. - US non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 106,000, increasing market hesitation about the Fed's interest rate cut [2][48]. - Domestically, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission focused on market construction and economic development, emphasizing regulation of corporate competition and improvement of product quality [2][48]. - As of July 4, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee was -$43.31 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was -4.31 cents per pound. Copper supply tightness may ease, and if tariffs are implemented, the US copper import channel may close, increasing available goods [2][48]. - As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30%. July is expected to be a seasonal consumption off - peak, with reduced orders and copper usage in copper rods and cables [2][48]. - Overall, with the copper tariff settled, previous large - scale copper shipments to the US pushed US copper inventories to a high and those in other regions to a low. If the arbitrage channel closes, export demand will drop sharply. However, due to the uncertain implementation time of the tariff, caution is advised when shorting [2][48]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Fundamental Information - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in June was 49, higher than the expected 48.8. The new orders index dropped, while output entered the expansion range [4]. - Non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 106,000, mainly driven by state and local government employment growth [4]. 3.2 Recent Latest Developments in Copper Mining Disturbances - Shengda Resources' Honglin Mining Caiyuanzi Copper - Gold Mine is expected to start trial production from July to September 2025 [6]. - Dowstone Technologies plans to invest up to $165 million in a 30 - kiloton cathode copper wet - smelting plant project in Congo (Kinshasa) [7][8]. 3.3 LME Copper/Shanghai Copper Price Analysis - This week, the center of copper prices moved down. As of July 8, the weekly high of Shanghai copper was 80,990 yuan/ton, the low was 79,120 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 2.32% and a decline of 1.26%. For LME copper, the weekly high was $10,020.5/ton, the low was $9,569.5/ton, with an amplitude of 4.54% and a decline of 2.80% [9]. - As of July 9, the spot premium in East China was 50 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 35 yuan/ton. The LME official price was $9,845/ton, and the spot premium was $80/ton. With the copper tariff settled, export demand declined, and the spot premium weakened [16]. 3.4 Copper Inventory Information - As of July 4, 2025, the domestic refined copper concentrate inventory at 7 major ports decreased by 47,000 tons to 440,000 tons. The smelting processing fee is expected to stabilize, but it is still negative [19]. - In May 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.935 million tons. From January to May, imports were 12.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4% [19][41]. - As of July 9, COMEX copper inventory decreased by 113,902 short tons to 221,800 short tons, a decline of 53.69%. LME copper inventory was 107,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.88% [25]. - As of July 7, the bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong was 70,800 tons. As of July 8, SHFE copper inventory was 21,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,761 tons or 14.99%. With the impact of copper tariffs, inventory is expected to accumulate [29]. 3.5 Refined Copper Monthly Import and Export Summary - As of July 4, the average import loss of refined copper was - 770.56 yuan/ton, a significant reduction from the previous period [41]. - In May 2025, China exported 114,171 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 23.6%. From January to May, cumulative exports were 594,797 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.2% [41]. - In May 2025, China's unwrought copper and copper products imports were 427,000 tons. From January to May, imports were 2.169 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.7% [41]. 3.6 Downstream Terminal Demand - As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30%. July is expected to be a seasonal consumption off - peak [42]. - In June, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.7, slightly higher than expected but still below the boom - bust line [42]. - The copper rod industry has entered the off - season, with reduced production and sales orders. The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern [45]. - The copper foil market has little change, with a supply - surplus situation and limited procurement enthusiasm [45]. - The copper tube market had poor transactions due to high prices. At the end of June, enterprises entered the production - reduction stage [45].