油脂：豆油菜油弱势震荡，棕榈油表现偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the US raising tariffs on goods from 14 countries may harm US crop export demand, and good weather in US soybean - growing areas causes CBOT soybeans to run under pressure. The expected decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June, along with the bullish expectation of the MPOB report and the depreciation of the Malaysian ringgit, support the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil futures [5]. - Domestically, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, and the off - season demand will lead to further inventory accumulation. With weakened import cost support, soybean oil is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. The arrival speed of imported palm oil has accelerated, and domestic prices follow the external market. For rapeseed oil, the decline in domestic inventory and uncertainties in subsequent imports still support prices, and rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic and Industry News - As of July 6, the US soybean emergence rate was 96%, higher than the previous week's 94% but lower than the historical average of 98%. The soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, unchanged from the previous week and in line with analysts' expectations [2]. - From June 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.69%, compared with a 3.07% month - on - month increase in May [2]. - Due to the US plan to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesian goods, Indonesian palm oil exports to the US may decline significantly. If the tariff policy is implemented, Indonesian palm oil exports to the US may decrease by 15% - 20% [2]. - Analysts predict that the US 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4.334 billion bushels, with a forecast range of 4.33 - 4.34 billion bushels, lower than the USDA's June estimate of 4.34 billion bushels [2]. 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - International: The US tariff increase may harm US crop exports, and good weather in US soybean - growing areas pressures CBOT soybeans. The expected decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June and other factors support the rise of Malaysian palm oil futures [5]. - Domestic: Soybean oil is expected to be weakly volatile, palm oil prices follow the external market, and rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate narrowly [6]