6月物价数据解读：核心 CPI继续回升，PPI同比降幅走阔

CPI Analysis - In June, the CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and increased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly above the previous values of -0.2% and -0.1% respectively[1] - The core CPI remained flat month-on-month and rose to 0.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Food prices fell by 0.4% month-on-month, while non-food prices remained stable[1] PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening from the previous 3.3%[2] - Energy prices showed a slight increase, with gasoline prices rising by 0.4% after a previous decline of 3.8%[1] - The manufacturing sector's capacity utilization rate was reported at 74.1%, indicating a downward trend in demand[2] Market Trends - The real estate market remains unstable, with property sales area and sales value declining by 2.9% and 3.8% respectively in the first five months[2] - The demand for durable goods and consumer products is weak, contributing to the low PPI and CPI figures[2] - The price of live pigs fell by 1.2% month-on-month, exceeding seasonal averages, indicating increased supply pressure[1] Future Outlook - The core CPI is expected to face limited recovery potential due to weak consumer confidence and internal competition pressures[2] - The global grain production forecast for 2025/2026 is expected to stabilize food prices, with a predicted increase in supply[2] - The oil price outlook remains uncertain, with OPEC+ considering production increases amid weak demand forecasts[2]