乐观氛围主导，煤焦偏强震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Coke: On July 9, the main coke contract closed at 1,456 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.43%. The market logic has shifted from fundamental to expectation-based. Despite no significant improvement in fundamentals, the market is optimistic due to factors like anti-involution policies and the US extending tariff exemptions. The direct impact of the policy on coke may be limited as the coking industry recently completed capacity upgrades. It is expected that coke futures will maintain a strong and volatile trend [5][31]. - Coking Coal: On July 9, the main coking coal contract closed at 843.5 points, up 0.84% intraday. Although coking coal production has marginally recovered in July, with the emergence of favorable domestic and foreign policies and a state leader's visit to Shanxi, the coking coal market sentiment is optimistic, and the futures are expected to remain strong and volatile [6][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - Policy Guidance: President Xi Jinping pointed out during an inspection in Shanxi that the coal industry should be upgraded from low - end to high - end, and coal products from primary fuels to high - value products. At the same time, a new energy system should be built by developing wind, solar, and hydrogen energy [8]. - Online Auction: On July 9, Mongolia's ETT company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal was 63.2 US dollars/ton, and all 32,000 tons up for auction failed to sell [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade, flat - price) | 1,220 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade, ex - warehouse) | 1,200 yuan/ton | 2.56% | 3.45% | - 25.93% | - 39.39% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 940 yuan/ton | 1.08% | 8.67% | - 20.34% | - 40.51% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1,230 yuan/ton | 1.65% | 1.65% | - 17.45% | - 41.15% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1,280 yuan/ton | 2.40% | 2.40% | - 16.34% | - 38.16% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,456.0 | 2.43% | 1,466.0 | 1,428.0 | 27,440 | 11,051 | 48,461 | 381 | | Coking Coal | | 871.5 | 3.81% | 877.0 | 847.5 | 1,245,012 | 521,917 | 555,558 | 10,571 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory over different time periods [14][15][17]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal over different time periods [18][21][23]. - Other Charts: Include charts on Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [25][28][29]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Coke: The market expects coke futures to maintain a strong and volatile trend, influenced by positive factors despite no significant improvement in fundamentals [5][31]. - Coking Coal: Coking coal futures are expected to remain strong and volatile due to favorable policies and optimistic market sentiment [6][32].