银河期货航运日报-20250709

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Container Shipping - The EC futures market showed mixed trends on July 9, with EC2508 rising 0.31% to 2012.5 points. The latest SCFIS European Line index increased by 6.3% week - on - week to 2258.04 points, and the SCFI European Line rose 3.5% to $2101/TEU [2][4]. - Spot freight rates vary among major shipping companies. The OA Alliance maintains high - level quotes due to good cargo collection. The demand side is in the traditional peak season from July to August, but tariff policies may affect the shipping rhythm. The supply side shows that the weekly average capacity in July, August, and September 2025 is increasing, and July is in a stage of increasing supply and demand [5]. - The short - term market is expected to be supported by Maersk's unchanged rates, driving the EC2508 contract to be relatively strong. The far - month contracts need to focus on the cease - fire negotiations [5]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by about 0.4% to 1431 points on July 8, the lowest since June 3. The Capesize vessel freight index declined for the 16th consecutive day, while the Panamax vessel index reached its highest point since August last year [12]. - Spot freight rates for Capesize vessels' iron ore routes decreased, while some coal and grain routes of Panamax vessels showed different trends. The iron ore and grain shipping volumes decreased in the recent period [13][15]. - The Capesize vessel market is under pressure due to limited cargo volume, while the Panamax vessel market is expected to be relatively strong due to coal and grain transportation demand [17]. Oil Tanker Shipping - On July 8, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) remained unchanged at 935 points, and the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) decreased by 0.19% to 534 points. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to geopolitical conflict premiums, and the demand side is relatively weak during the refinery maintenance period [21][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping Futures Market - Different EC contracts showed different price changes on July 9. For example, EC2508 rose 0.31%, while EC2510 fell 0.34%. The trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased [2]. - The monthly spread structure also changed, with some spreads rising and some falling [2]. Freight Rates - The SCFIS European Line index increased by 6.35% week - on - week, while the SCFIS US West Line index decreased by 3.79%. The SCFI comprehensive index decreased by 5.27% [2]. Market Analysis and Strategy - The market is affected by shipping company quotes, demand - supply dynamics, and tariff policies. The short - term strategy is to wait and see for single - side trading and conduct rolling operations for the 10 - 12 spread arbitrage [4][5][6]. Dry Bulk Shipping Freight Index - The BDI decreased by 0.35% on July 8, the BCI decreased by 4.05%, the BPI increased by 2.48%, and the BSI increased by 2.27% [12]. Spot Freight Rates - Spot freight rates for different routes of Capesize and Panamax vessels showed various trends on July 8 and in the week of July 4 [12][13]. Shipping Volume - From June 30 to July 6, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 362.7 million tons. In June 2025, the soybean shipping volume from Brazil was lower than that in July last year [14][15]. Market Analysis - The Capesize vessel market is weak due to limited cargo volume, while the Panamax vessel market is expected to be strong due to coal and grain demand [17]. Oil Tanker Shipping Freight Index - On July 8, the BDTI remained unchanged, and the BCTI decreased by 0.19%. The average earnings of different types of oil tankers showed different trends [21][22]. Market Analysis - The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to geopolitical conflict premiums, and the demand side is weak during the refinery maintenance period [23]. Industry News - There are various news related to tariffs, shipping volume, and geopolitical situations, such as Trump's tariff announcements, shipping volume data from different regions, and the cease - fire negotiation progress in the Gaza Strip [8][10][15]. Related Attachments - There are multiple figures showing different shipping indices and freight rates over time, including SCFIS, SCFI, BDI, BDTI, etc. [27][36][42]