Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on meal products dated July 9, 2025, focusing on the market conditions of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [2][4] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2997, 2704, and 2947 respectively, with changes of +8, -1, and +12. The spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao shows a downward trend [4] - For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2313, 2306, and 2586 respectively, with changes of +3, -6, and +10. The spot basis in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi shows a stable or slightly downward trend [4] Monthly Spread - The 59, 91, and 15 spreads of soybean meal are -243, -50, and 293 respectively, with changes of -13, +4, and +9. The 59, 91, and 15 spreads of rapeseed meal are -280, 273, and 7 respectively, with changes of -16, +7, and +9 [4] Cross - Variety Futures Spread - The soybean - rapeseed 01 spread is 684, and the soybean - rapeseed 09 spread is 361. The oil - meal ratio 01 is 2.641 [4] Spot Spread - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 640, with an increase of 9. The spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal is 7, with an increase of 3. The spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal is 587, with an increase of 2 [4] Market Performance - The US soybean market continued to decline slightly. The domestic soybean meal market rebounded, and the rapeseed meal market also followed a slight rebound. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Soybean - The new US soybean balance sheet has improved, mainly due to the boost of biodiesel policies on crushing. As of the week ending July 6, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 66%. As of the week ending July 3, the export inspection volume of old US soybeans was 389,400 tons. The soybean crushing data in May was good, with a NOPA - caliber crushing volume of 192.829 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 1.37%, and the crushing profit rebounded [5] South American Soybean - Brazilian farmers' selling progress has been slow, and the recent selling progress has further slowed down, resulting in price pressure. Brazilian soybean crushing volume has decreased, and the crushing profit is relatively low. Argentina's domestic crushing volume may improve, but soybean exports may increase [5] Domestic Market - The domestic spot market is relatively loose. As of July 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills is 2.3322 million tons, the operating rate is 65.56%, the soybean inventory is 6.364 million tons, a decrease of 4.43% from the previous week, and an increase of 11.28% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory is 822,400 tons, an increase of 18.91% from the previous week, and a decrease of 24.04% year - on - year [7] - The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has weakened. As of the week ending July 4, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills is 47,000 tons, the operating rate this week is 12.53%, the rapeseed inventory is 162,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 4,600 tons, a decrease of 6,400 tons from the previous week [7] Group 4: Macroeconomic Analysis - The China - US negotiations in London have been completed, but there is no clear information. The market is still worried about supply uncertainties. Although the overall international trade situation has many uncertainties, the macro - level disturbances are decreasing. China's long - term demand for US soybeans is still high, so the price is not likely to drop significantly in the short term [8] Group 5: Logic Analysis Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal market shows some support and is slightly stronger than the international market. The US soybean market is expected to be weak, but the decline in the domestic market is expected to be limited. The monthly spread of the domestic soybean meal market may be under some pressure, but the space for a sharp decline is limited [9] Rapeseed Meal - The change in the rapeseed meal market is relatively limited, mainly affected by the soybean meal market. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. The monthly spread of the rapeseed meal market is at a high level and may face some pressure [9] Group 6: Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, a low - position long - order strategy is recommended - For arbitrage, an expansion strategy for the MRM09 spread is recommended - For options, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [10] Group 7: Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit from different origins and shipping dates varies. For example, the crushing profit from Argentina in October is - 33.39 for the futures market and - 109.79 for the spot market, showing an improvement compared to the previous day [11]
银河期货粕类日报-20250709
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-09 13:08