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观望气氛为主,聚烯烃盘面整理
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-09 13:30

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The market trading of macro - positive factors has ended, and the atmosphere of waiting and seeing prevails. Downstream factories have low purchasing sentiment, and most end - users make purchases based on rigid demand. Upstream petrochemical plants will enter the maintenance season, and the maintenance loss is on the rise, alleviating the market supply pressure and leading to a slight reduction in production inventory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, international oil prices and propane prices are falling, the production profit of PDH - made PP has turned from loss to profit, and the cost - side support has weakened. The downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the bottom - up recovery of the agricultural film industry's start - up rate and the decline of the plastic weaving industry's start - up rate [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7245元/吨(-2),PP主力合约收盘价为7045元/吨(-12),LL华北现货为7180元/吨(-30),LL华东现货为7270元/吨(-20),PP华东现货为7120元/吨(+0),LL华北基差为 - 65元/吨(-28),LL华东基差为25元/吨(-18),PP华东基差为75元/吨(+12) [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - PE开工率为79.5%(+3.0%),PP开工率为77.4%(-1.9%);PE油制生产利润为166.2元/吨(-108.4),PP油制生产利润为 - 243.8元/吨(-108.4),PDH制PP生产利润为300.1元/吨(+0.0) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 109.6元/吨(-10.0),PP进口利润为 - 624.5元/吨(+86.2),PP出口利润为28.3美元/吨(+0.0) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%(-0.3%),PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%(+0.5%),PP下游塑编开工率为42.2%(-1.0%),PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.3%(-0.1%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream petrochemical plants will enter the maintenance season, and production inventory has a slight reduction [2]