Group 1: Report Core View - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly rising on Wednesday. The price is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly falling on Wednesday. The price is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2508 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly rising on Wednesday. The price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the future [7]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons or 0.05%. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 2.36%, while that in general trade increased by 0.40% [9]. - As of July 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.13%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 6.27 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 15.27 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, a slight week - on - week decline of 0.17 percentage points and a slight year - on - year decline of 0.67 percentage points [9]. - In June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points. The index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [9]. - In June 2025, China's logistics prosperity index (LPI) was 50.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points. The heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 85.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.81%, a month - on - month increase of 1.87%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 13.63%. The weekly average methanol output was 1.9871 million tons, a significant week - on - week decrease of 70,600 tons [11]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.68%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.04%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 4.78%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.62%. The acetic acid operating rate was 97.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.78%. The MTBE operating rate was 50.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.20% [11]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 78.39%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.60 percentage points. The domestic methanol to olefin futures profit was - 138 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 62 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 499,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,400 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 352,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons [12][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 432, a week - on - week decrease of 6 and a year - on - year decrease of 47. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.433 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2,000 barrels per day [14]. - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 418.95 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 3.845 million barrels. The Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 1.493 million barrels week - on - week [15]. - As of July 1, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil futures were 234,693 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 1,724 contracts. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 166,510 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 23,997 contracts [16]. Group 3: Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 13,950 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 14,045 yuan/ton | + 60 yuan/ton | - 95 yuan/ton | - 60 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,440 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | 2,372 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | 68 yuan/ton | + 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 483.7 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 511.6 yuan/barrel | + 5.6 yuan/barrel | - 27.8 yuan/barrel | - 5.5 yuan/barrel | [17] Group 4: Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [44][46][48]
橡胶甲醇原油：多空分歧仍在，能化涨跌互现
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-07-09 13:29