豆粕生猪：成交小幅回暖，连粕震荡反弹

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 had a technical rebound after reaching the key support level of 2920, but is expected to fluctuate in the bottom range in the short - term. The spot price of soybean meal continued to decline slowly, and the spot trading volume slightly recovered. The basis of soybean meal continued to decline under pressure, and it is difficult to break through the previous low of - 200. The oil mills are facing inventory pressure, and the sales progress of the far - month basis in the fourth quarter is slow [17][18]. - The DCE live hog main contract 2509 declined slightly. In the short - term, the supply of live hogs is tight, leading to a relatively strong price fluctuation. However, in the later period, if the slaughter rhythm recovers, the price increase will slow down. The weak demand in the off - season and the medium - term supply pressure will restrict the upward space of the price [19]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 closed at 2947 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous trading day, and the quotes of coastal oil mills decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main contract 2509 closed at 14265 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from the previous trading day. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs was 14.85 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract decreased by 0.29% to 1018 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - There will be local to scattered showers in the US Midwest this week, with temperatures close to or higher than normal. Although many areas have basically favorable weather conditions, there are both wet and dry areas in the region [3][4]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - Analysts expect the global 2025/26 soybean ending inventory to be 1.2631 billion tons, with a forecast range of 1.235 - 1.4 billion tons, higher than the USDA's June forecast of 1.253 billion tons [5]. - On July 9, the import cost of US soybeans was 4471 yuan, down 12 yuan from the previous day; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3771 yuan, down 49 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3620 yuan, down 34 yuan [5]. - On July 8, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal continued to increase, with the spot trading volume increasing by 65000 tons and the basis trading volume decreasing by 7000 tons. The average trading price was 2860.1 yuan/ton, a 6 - and - a - half - month low [5]. - Analysts expect Brazil's 2024/25 soybean output to be 169.25 million tons and Argentina's to be 49.27 million tons [5]. - Analysts expect the US 2025/26 soybean output to be 4.334 billion bushels, with a yield of 52.5 bushels/acre, and the 2024/25 ending inventory to be 358 million bushels [6]. - As of the week ending July 4, the deliverable inventory of CBOT soybeans was 8.667 million bushels, down 3.15% from the previous week and up 196.92% from the same period last year [6]. - As of June 30, the EU's 2024/25 rapeseed imports were 7.45 million tons and soybean meal imports were 19.39 million tons, higher than last year [6]. - The 2025/26 total supply of soybeans in Mato Grosso is expected to be 48.55 million tons, with an ending inventory of 940,000 tons. The output forecast is 47.18 million tons, down 7.29% from 2024/25 [7]. - As of the week ending July 4, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising live hogs was 119.72 yuan/head, and the loss of purchasing piglets for fattening was 26.26 yuan/head [7]. - In June 2025, the national PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month; the PPIRM decreased by 4.3% year - on - year and 0.7% month - on - month [7]. 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, live hog prices, basis, and Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][11][14][15]. 5. Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the US soybean futures price is testing the support level of 1000 - 1010 cents. The Brazilian soybean export sales pressure has been relieved, and its premium is expected to be strong. The domestic soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range, and the spot price is slowly decreasing. The oil mills are facing inventory pressure, and the sales of far - month basis contracts are slow [17][18]. - For live hogs, the short - term supply is tight, but the supply pressure still exists in the medium - term. The demand is weak in the off - season. The slaughter rhythm of farmers and the entry of second - fattening hogs are the key factors affecting the short - term market [19].