《大国博弈》系列第八十七篇：特朗普为何加速推进232调查？

Group 1: Overview of Section 232 Investigation - The Section 232 investigation initiated by Trump aims to assess whether imports threaten national security, with a focus on products like copper and pharmaceuticals[4] - The investigation process typically spans 5 to 12 months, with a report due within 270 days after initiation[4] - The recent investigations cover seven product categories, with a total import value of $658.28 billion in 2024, accounting for 20.2% of total U.S. imports[8] Group 2: Tariff Implications - A 50% tariff on copper is likely, while a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals is less feasible due to potential negative impacts on the healthcare system[3][20] - If implemented, the overall U.S. import tariff rate could increase by 16.9 percentage points, raising inflation by approximately 1.08 percentage points[15][19] - The majority of the tariff impact is expected to come from pharmaceutical tariffs, contributing to about 80% of the inflation increase[15] Group 3: Affected Countries and Products - Key exporting countries affected by the new tariffs include Canada, Mexico, Ireland, and Germany, with significant export exposure to the U.S.[11] - Specific products targeted include copper (mainly from Chile and Canada), pharmaceuticals (primarily from Ireland and Germany), and semiconductors (from Taiwan and Malaysia)[12] - The investigation results are expected to be announced in the second half of 2025, with some outcomes potentially revealed as early as July-August[18]