复盘供给侧改革：“反内卷”如何催生产能出清主升浪

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, aiming to address the issue of "involution" in market competition [2][8] - Historical cases show that supply-side clearance driven by policy typically begins with market expectations, while the main upward trend requires improvements in industry structure to support cash flow and balance sheet recovery [8][10] - The current round of overcapacity is primarily concentrated in mid- and downstream industries, unlike the previous cycle which was focused on upstream resource sectors [9][10] Group 2 - The report suggests focusing on two main strategies: industries that have experienced prolonged supply-side clearance and are likely to see improvements in supply-demand dynamics, and industries that may benefit from policy-driven accelerated clearance [10][11] - For natural clearance, the report recommends monitoring demand-side indicators for upstream industries and supply-side indicators for mid- and downstream sectors, highlighting sectors such as agricultural chemicals, general machinery, pharmaceuticals, and components [10] - For policy-driven clearance, attention should be given to industries mentioned in recent policies aimed at addressing "involution," including photovoltaic, lithium batteries, automobiles, and cement [10][17]