金信期货日刊-20250710

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, the coking coal futures price rose. The supply was tight due to safety inspections in major production areas, potential closure of the capacity replacement window, and the implementation of the Mineral Resources Law. Meanwhile, demand increased during the "peak summer" period, with high power plant consumption, rising coking industry and iron - making开工率. The price increase may raise steel production costs and attract more funds to the coal industry. Investors are advised to seize the opportunity of low - buying on dips [3]. - For stock index futures, considering the June CPI and PPI data, the market is expected to continue high - level consolidation [7]. - For gold, although there was an adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, the long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips at important support levels [11][12]. - For iron ore, supply is rising, iron - making output is seasonally weakening, and ports are restocking. There is a risk of overvaluation, and steel mill profits should be monitored. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [14][15]. - For glass, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [17][18]. - For soybean oil, due to the uncertain US biodiesel policy and Middle - East situation, the short - term trend may be strong, but mid - term supply will increase. When the price reaches the resistance area of 7950 - 8000, short - selling with a light position is recommended [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: In June, over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were shut down for rectification. There are rumors that the capacity replacement window will close in the second half of the year, with an expected annual production cut of 1.2 billion tons. The implementation of the Mineral Resources Law on July 1 led to about 30% of small coal mines facing exit, such as the suspension of 12 million tons of production capacity in Shanxi, causing a shortage of high - quality coking coal and a 50 - yuan/ton increase in spot price [3]. - Demand: During the "peak summer", the daily power plant consumption exceeded 2.4 million tons, the coking industry开工率 reached 82%, a new high for the year. The daily iron - making output rebounded to 2.35 million tons, and the coking plant开工率 was 73%. Steel mills' passive restocking increased short - term demand [3]. Stock Index Futures - Market situation: In June, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The market is expected to continue high - level consolidation [7]. Gold - Market situation: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in the gold price. However, the long - term upward trend remains, and it is recommended to buy on dips at important support levels [11][12]. Iron Ore - Supply - demand situation: Supply increased month - on - month, iron - making output decreased seasonally, and ports started restocking. The weak reality increased the risk of overvaluation, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits. Technically, it continued to rebound and is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [14][15]. Glass - Supply - demand situation: There has been no major cold - repair situation due to losses in the supply side, factory inventories are still high, downstream deep - processing orders lack restocking motivation, and demand has not increased significantly. It is waiting for real - estate stimulus or major policy. Technically, it continued to rebound and is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [17][18]. Soybean Oil - Market situation: Due to the uncertain US biodiesel policy and Middle - East situation, the short - term trend may be strong, but mid - term supply will increase. When the price reaches the resistance area of 7950 - 8000, short - selling with a light position is recommended [20].