格林大华期货早盘提示-20250710

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position for all four major stock index futures contracts (IH, IF, IM, IC) and suggests buying out - of - the - money long - term call options on stock indices [1][2][3]. 2. Report's Core View - The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market. The governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises is likely to boost the performance of listed companies, and international funds are expected to flow into A - shares due to the "de - Americanization" of global financial asset reallocation. Although the Shanghai Composite Index had a short - term pullback, the medium - and long - term outlook is optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the major stock indices in the two markets were strong first and then weak. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated above 3500 points and declined after 14:00. The innovative drug sector led the gains. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.50 trillion yuan, with little change. The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6390 points, down 17 points or - 0.27%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 5953 points, down 24 points or - 0.41%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2739 points, down 7 points or - 0.26%; the SSE 300 Index closed at 3991 points, down 7 points or - 0.18%. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 300, and SSE 50 index futures saw net outflows of 80, 37, 31, and 4 billion yuan in settled funds respectively [1]. Important Information - The Economic Daily stated that breaking "involution" means returning the market to fair competition. When enterprises shift from low - price competition to competing in technology, user understanding, and market creation, they can move up the value chain [1]. - National Development and Reform Commission Director Zheng Shanjie said that during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's GDP continuously exceeded 110, 120, and 130 trillion yuan, and this year's economic volume is expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan [1]. - In June, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year - on - year, up from a decline in the previous month, and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, with a narrower decline than the previous month [1]. - The A - H premium converged, and the Hong Kong stock market showed a valuation premium. Foreign investors still have a large demand for Chinese core assets. As of June 30, the A - H premium in the Shanghai - Shenzhen - Hong Kong market fell below 130%, similar to the level in early 2021 [1]. - Goldman Sachs pointed out that the Chinese software market continued the strong development momentum of AI - native applications in Q2 2025, with intelligent agents, multi - modal AI models, and model deployment as the three core growth engines [1]. - JD Takeaway launched the "Double - Hundred Plan", investing over 10 billion yuan to support more brand products to achieve sales of over one million [1]. - US Commerce Secretary Luttner is expected to meet with Chinese officials in early August to discuss trade issues [1]. - OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production, but oil prices did not fall, indicating that the global oil supply - demand balance is more tense than the surface data shows [2]. - Tether Holdings SA, the world's largest stablecoin issuer, stores about $8 billion worth of gold in a Swiss vault, making it the largest gold holder outside banks and national institutions [2]. - The US Treasury plans to increase the cash reserve in the general account from about $313 billion on July 3 to $500 billion by the end of July and to $85 billion by September [2]. - US President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, causing the US copper futures price to soar 13% to a record high [2]. - The spread between US junk bonds and Treasury bonds has dropped to a record low of about 2.88 percentage points, indicating strong investor confidence in the economic outlook [2]. Market Logic - The major stock indices in the two markets were strong first and then weak on Wednesday. China's economic volume is expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan this year. The A - H premium converged, and foreign investors have a large demand for Chinese core assets. The US imposing tariffs on Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia benefits China's exports. Goldman Sachs expects Chinese listed companies to pay a total of 3 trillion yuan in dividends by the end of 2025 [2]. Outlook for the Future Market - The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market. The "de - Americanization" of global financial asset reallocation may accelerate international funds flowing into A - shares. The central government's measures to promote a unified national market and regulate low - price competition are expected to boost the performance of listed companies. The short - term pullback of the Shanghai Composite Index does not affect the medium - and long - term optimism [2]. Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, given the expected improvement in listed company performance and the potential for a trending upward market, it is recommended to be bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts [2]. - For stock index option trading, as the market is expected to turn into a trending upward market, it is recommended to buy long - term out - of - the - money call options on stock indices [3].