6月通胀数据点评：PPI降幅扩大，“反内卷”势在必行

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from a decline to an increase, which aligns with market expectations[2] - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest since May 2024, indicating a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, the largest drop since August 2023, reflecting weakened domestic demand and overcapacity in certain industries[6] Group 2: Price Movements and Influences - Industrial consumer goods prices rebounded, significantly contributing to the CPI increase, with fuel prices declining by 10.8% year-on-year, a reduction of 2.1 percentage points[6] - Gold and platinum jewelry prices surged by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively, contributing approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI increase[6] - The PPI's year-on-year decline was exacerbated by significant drops in coal, steel, and cement prices, with coal prices falling by 21.8%[6] Group 3: Future Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The outlook for pork prices suggests they will remain stable, while energy prices may face downward pressure due to geopolitical risks[2] - The Central Financial Committee's focus on addressing "involution" in competition may help stabilize prices in various sectors, emphasizing the importance of demand-side policies alongside supply-side optimization[2] - To promote a recovery in consumer prices, both supply and demand sides must work together, with a focus on enhancing employment and social security to boost household income[6]