美联储与会者对通胀前景看法不一

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term price trend is expected to be volatile [16] - Stock Index Futures: Suggest balanced allocation of various stock indices [19] - US Dollar: Short - term volatility is expected [23] - US Stock Index Futures: Be cautious about the risk of correction [26] - Treasury Bond Futures: Long positions can be held, and trading positions should be treated with a volatile mindset [29] - Soybean Meal: Domestic and foreign futures prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term [31] - Live Pigs: Mainly operate with range - bound trading [34] - Rebar/HRC: On the spot side, it is recommended to hedge on rallies [38] - Corn Starch: Future uncertainty is high [39] - Corn: New crop short positions can consider entering the market lightly in advance [42] - Thermal Coal: Prices are expected to remain flat in July [43] - Iron Ore: Look for short - selling opportunities around $100 [44] - Coking Coal/Coke: Pay attention to the sustainability of demand, and the upside space may be limited [46] - Copper: The market is expected to decline in the short - term, with a short - term bearish strategy [50] - Lead: Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks and consider short - put opportunities [52] - Zinc: Look for opportunities to short on rallies and manage positions well [56] - Nickel: In the short - term, it is expected to trade in a narrow range at a low level, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [58] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to buying on dips and positive arbitrage opportunities [62] - LPG: Prices are expected to remain weakly volatile with insufficient upward drivers [66] - Crude Oil: Short - term range - bound trading is expected [69] - Styrene: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies and consider medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities [72] - Caustic Soda: The short - term market is expected to be volatile [74] - Pulp: The market is expected to be volatile [77] - PVC: The subsequent market may have limited upside [78] - Bottle Chips: Look for opportunities to expand processing margins by buying on dips [80] - PX: Short - term volatility adjustment, and the medium - term gap will widen [82] - PTA: Short - term price volatility adjustment, and pay attention to the impact of PX maintenance in the medium - term [84] - Soda Ash: Maintain a view of short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [85] - Float Glass: Consider long glass and short soda ash cross - variety arbitrage [86] - Container Freight Rate: The central price of the market may move up further [87] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is significantly affected by Trump's tariff policies, which impact the inflation expectations of the Federal Reserve, the risk appetite of the market, and the confidence in terminal demand growth [22][49] - The inflation data in June deviated slightly from expectations, with CPI exceeding expectations and PPI falling short. The overall price level is still low, and the upstream price decline is obvious, but it has little impact on market risk preference [28] - In the commodity market, different varieties have different supply - demand situations. Some are affected by seasonal factors, some by production and inventory changes, and some by policy adjustments [33][43][62] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The 10 - year US Treasury auction data is good, and the Fed's meeting minutes show reduced economic uncertainty. Gold prices oscillated and closed higher, supported near the 60 - day moving average. Short - term gold prices are expected to be volatile [14][15][16] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council issued new policies to support stable employment. The stock market rose and then fell, with cooling market sentiment but still high trading volume. The core factors are the uncertainty of overseas tariff policies and the mismatch between corporate profit growth and valuation [17][18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed's meeting minutes show differences among officials in inflation expectations. Trump announced new tariff letters. The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short - term [21][22][23] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The EU is urging the US to lift tariffs. The Fed's meeting minutes show differences in interest rate expectations. The US stock market is at a position with insufficient pricing of negative factors, and there is a risk of correction [24][25][26] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - In June, CPI exceeded expectations and PPI fell short. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and long positions can be held [27][28][29] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release the July supply - demand report. Market concerns about trade wars and US soybean exports are increasing. Domestic soybean meal spot is weak. Short - term prices are expected to be volatile [30][31] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - New Wufeng's pig sales increased in the first half of the year. In July, the supply is still high, and the demand is gradually recovering, with intensified long - short competition. It is recommended to trade within a range [32][33][34] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The passenger car market retail sales increased in June. Peru imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese wire rods. Steel prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies [35][36][38] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch production and operating rates decreased this week, and inventory increased. The demand is in the off - season, and future uncertainty is high [39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Port corn inventories decreased. Market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to short new crop corn lightly in advance [40][41][42] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - Due to high - temperature weather, coal demand increased. Although production and transportation were affected by rain, prices are expected to remain flat in July [43] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Russian company invested in an iron ore project. Ore prices rebounded with the black market, but the upside is limited. Look for short - selling opportunities around $100 [44] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in the southwest is stable. The market is affected by macro factors, and the upside space may be limited [45][46] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - A mining company's copper production increased. Argentina adjusted mining policies. Chile is waiting for US communication on copper tariffs. Copper prices are expected to decline in the short - term [47][48][50] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread is in contango. A lead mine may enter the Chinese market in the third - quarter. Lead prices are expected to rise gradually, and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [51][52] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread is in contango. A zinc mine plans to expand production. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [53][55][56] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - An Indonesian company acquired a nickel mine stake. Nickel prices are expected to trade in a narrow range at a low level in the short - term, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [57][58] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - New lithium ore was discovered in Hunan, and a lithium project in Zimbabwe restarted. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise, and pay attention to buying on dips and positive arbitrage opportunities [60][61][62] 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (LPG) - India plans to increase LPG imports from the US. US C3 inventory increased. LPG prices are expected to be weakly volatile [63][64][66] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Kazakhstan plans to maintain current production until the end of the year. US EIA crude inventory increased. Oil prices are expected to trade in a range in the short - term [67][68][69] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene port inventory increased. Pure benzene is expected to reduce inventory in July - August, but downstream profit margins have decreased. Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [69][70][72] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong is stable. The decline in caustic soda prices has basically ended, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [73][74] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is mostly stable. The market is expected to be volatile [75][77] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - PVC prices rose, but the fundamentals are weakening. The subsequent market may have limited upside [78] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory prices are stable. The industry plans to reduce production in July, and pay attention to opportunities to expand processing margins [79][80] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices rebounded slightly. In the short - term, it will be volatile, and the medium - term gap will widen [81][82] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot basis is stable. Demand is under pressure in the short - term, and pay attention to the impact of PX maintenance in the medium - term [83][84] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash prices are volatile. With high inventory levels, it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [85] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices are stable. The market is expected to be volatile, and a long - glass short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy is recommended [86] 3.2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Container freight rates are expected to rise, but there are also negative factors [87]