渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.10）-20250710

Macro and Strategy Research - In June 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from decline to increase year-on-year, with a smaller month-on-month decline. Key features include a limited drop in food prices due to high temperatures and increased rainfall, a rise in energy-related CPI driven by international oil price increases, and a notable rise in some industrial consumer goods prices, such as platinum jewelry and home appliances due to pre-"618" promotional activities [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw an expanded year-on-year decline in June 2025, with month-on-month performance remaining weak. This is attributed to seasonal price declines in domestic raw materials, increased green energy leading to lower coal prices, and pressure on prices in export-heavy industries due to slowing global trade growth [3][4] Financial Engineering Research - During the week of July 2 to July 8, 2025, major A-share indices mostly rose, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.54%. The margin trading balance reached 1,859.01 billion yuan, an increase of 10.32 billion yuan from the previous week, with a notable rise in financing balances [5][6] - The sectors with the highest net buying in margin trading included power equipment, computers, and public utilities, while banking, steel, and construction decoration sectors saw less net buying [6] Industry Research - In June 2025, the average working hours for major engineering machinery products was 77.2 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 9.11%. However, sales of excavators and loaders increased by 13.3% and 11.3% year-on-year, respectively [8][9] - A recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam involves a 20% tariff on goods imported from Vietnam and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, which is expected to influence the export chain dynamics [9][10] - The machinery equipment industry maintained a "positive" rating, with recommendations to "overweight" stocks such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, and China CNR Corporation [10]