对等关税博弈延续，资金谨慎驱动有色回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [7] - Alumina: Short - term wait - and - see, medium - to - long - term cautious short - selling of far - month contracts or consider reverse arbitrage if warehouse receipts increase [8][10] - Aluminum: Oscillating in a range [11] - Aluminum Alloy: Short - term low - level oscillation, medium - term potential for upward movement [12][14][15] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly, focus on high - short opportunities [15][16] - Lead: Oscillating [16][17][19] - Nickel: Oscillating weakly in the short term [19][20][22] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating in the short term [24] - Tin: Oscillating [25] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing US reciprocal tariff game and Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports have led to a cautious market sentiment, causing a decline in the non - ferrous metals market. In the short - to - medium term, tariff uncertainties and weakening demand expectations will suppress prices, with a focus on structural opportunities. In the long term, the demand prospects for non - ferrous metals remain uncertain [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Information Analysis: Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper. The TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in mid - 2025 was 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. In June, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.34 tons month - on - month, a 0.3% decline, but increased by 12.93% year - on - year. As of July 7, copper inventory increased by 1.11 tons to 14.29 tons [7]. - Main Logic: Trump's tariff announcement has put pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the demand has weakened in the off - season. Inventories have started to accumulate, and the upward momentum of copper prices has cooled. It is expected that copper prices will oscillate [7]. Alumina - Information Analysis: On July 9, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina increased. The government of Guinea proposed GBX and exercised transportation rights. On July 8, alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The Xinjiang railway issued a suspension order from July 7 - 11 [8][10]. - Main Logic: In the short - to - medium term, there is no shortage of ore, but the market sentiment has a significant impact. In the long term, the focus is on ore prices. The measures proposed by Guinea may increase costs. In the short term, wait and see; in the medium - to - long term, consider short - selling far - month contracts [8][10]. Aluminum - Information Analysis: On July 9, the average price of SMM AOO was 20,660 yuan/ton. As of July 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods increased, and the warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE increased [11]. - Main Logic: The tariff negotiation deadline has been postponed, but there is still uncertainty. The fundamentals show inventory accumulation, and downstream willingness to buy at high prices has weakened. In the short term, prices will oscillate in a range; in the long term, consumption has potential risks [11]. Aluminum Alloy - Information Analysis: On July 9, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. Thailand plans to impose a carbon tax in 2025. In June, the retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy passenger cars increased year - on - year [12]. - Main Logic: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost is supportive. Demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 will oscillate at a low level; in the medium term, there is potential for upward movement [12][14][15]. Zinc - Information Analysis: As of July 9, the spot premium of zinc decreased, and the inventory increased. The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production [15]. - Main Logic: The market risk preference has decreased. The supply of zinc ore has loosened, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory is accumulating, and prices are expected to decline in the long term [15][16]. Lead - Information Analysis: On July 9, the price of waste batteries remained stable, and the price of lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots and SHFE warehouse receipts increased [16][17]. - Main Logic: The spot discount has slightly widened, and the supply has increased. The demand for lead - acid batteries has improved slightly. In the short term, prices will oscillate [16][17][19]. Nickel - Information Analysis: As of July 9, LME nickel inventory increased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Multiple nickel - related projects have advanced [19][20][21]. - Main Logic: The market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The inventory has accumulated significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [19][20][22]. Stainless Steel - Information Analysis: The inventory of stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased. The price of nickel iron and chrome iron has declined, and the 300 - series is still in an inverted state [24]. - Main Logic: The cost support has weakened, and the demand is out of the peak season. The inventory has decreased, and it is expected that stainless steel prices will oscillate in the short term [24]. Tin - Information Analysis: On July 9, LME tin warehouse receipts increased, and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased. The price of tin ingots increased [25]. - Main Logic: The shortage of tin ore in China is intensifying, and the supply from Indonesia is affected. The supply - demand fundamentals are tightening, but the demand will weaken in the second half of the year. It is expected that tin prices will oscillate [25].