研究所晨会观点精萃-20250710

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Globally, the risk appetite has increased due to the hope of US interest - rate cuts despite tariff - related inflation concerns, and domestically, the economic growth has accelerated with improved market sentiment [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions: stocks are expected to be short - term bullish with caution; bonds are at a high level and should be observed carefully; commodities in different sectors have various trends, and most are recommended for short - term cautious long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US has imposed tariffs on seven countries, increasing short - term tariff risks, but the Fed's meeting minutes have raised hopes of interest - rate cuts this year, boosting global risk appetite. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continued to rise, and policies such as "anti - involution" and "stabilizing employment" have improved domestic risk appetite. The RMB exchange rate has appreciated, and the domestic market sentiment has continued to warm up [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks are expected to be short - term bullish with caution; bonds are at a high level and should be observed carefully; commodities in different sectors have various trends, and most are recommended for short - term cautious long positions [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as insurance, CSSC, and metals. However, the economic fundamentals are improving, and market sentiment is warming up. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver continued to fluctuate. The delay of the tariff deadline and the conclusion of trade agreements by some countries have led to an optimistic market outlook. The rise of the US dollar and the Fed's attitude towards interest - rate cuts have put pressure on precious metals. However, gold has long - term support, and tariff disturbances will be the main short - term influencing factor, with expected increased short - term volatility [4]. 3.4 Black Metals 3.4.1 Steel - The steel market rebounded slightly, but the trading volume was low. The "anti - involution" initiative is expanding. The real demand is weakening, the inventory is rising, and the supply is affected by production - restriction policies. The cost support is strong, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. 3.4.2 Iron Ore - The price of iron ore rebounded slightly, mainly driven by the macro - logic. The fundamentals are weakening, and the impact of production - restriction policies needs to be further observed. The price is expected to be bullish in the short term, but there is a risk of a supplementary decline if the iron - water output continues to fall [6]. 3.4.3 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has decreased, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. 3.5 Chemicals 3.5.1 Soda Ash - The soda - ash futures price was bullish. The glass industry is expected to cut production, which has led to concerns about soda - ash production capacity withdrawal. The supply has decreased due to device maintenance, and the demand is still at a low level. In the long term, it is recommended to short, but there may be short - term support [8]. 3.5.2 Glass - The glass futures price was bullish. The market expects production cuts due to the "anti - involution" policy. The supply is expected to decrease, which may support the price, but the demand from the real - estate industry is still weak [9][10]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy 3.6.1 Copper - Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper. The implementation time is uncertain. If it is implemented before August 1st, the copper price will continue to fall; otherwise, the price may be supported [11]. 3.6.2 Aluminum - The PMI of the aluminum - processing industry in June decreased, and the fundamentals have weakened. The inventory has increased, but the short - term downward momentum is insufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. 3.6.3 Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. However, the tight supply of scrap aluminum supports the price. The price is expected to be bullish in the short term, but the upward space is limited [12]. 3.6.4 Tin - The supply has increased, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upward space will be restricted in the medium term [12]. 3.6.5 Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The supply is in a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. The cost support is strong, and it is expected to be bullish [13]. 3.6.6 Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The production decreased last week, and it is expected to be bullish due to the "anti - involution" policy [13]. 3.6.7 Polysilicon - The futures price of polysilicon increased significantly. The price of the spot and downstream products also increased. It is expected to be bullish in the short term, but attention should be paid to market feedback and capital changes [14]. 3.7 Energy and Chemicals 3.7.1 Crude Oil - The EIA data showed that the crude - oil inventory increased significantly last week, and the US imposed sanctions on Iranian oil exports. The market is testing the $70 level, and there is pressure at high levels [15]. 3.7.2 Asphalt - The asphalt price is stable, following the trend of crude oil. The shipment volume has decreased, the inventory is decreasing slowly, and the demand is approaching the peak season. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [15]. 3.7.3 PX - The PX price has weakened, and the PXN spread has narrowed. The PTA's increased production will support PX, but the weakening PTA price may drag it down. The weakening trend of PX may be slower than that of its downstream products [15]. 3.7.4 PTA - The PTA basis has weakened significantly, and there is an expectation of over - supply in the future. The price increased slightly due to the "anti - involution" logic, but there is a risk of a callback [16]. 3.7.5 Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene - glycol price increased slightly due to sector resonance. There is a risk of inventory accumulation after the increase in production, and the price may decline slightly in the future [16]. 3.7.6 Short - fiber - The short - fiber price fluctuated within a range, following the polyester sector. The terminal orders are average, the inventory is high, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium term [16]. 3.7.7 Methanol - The supply of methanol has decreased due to domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals, but the international supply is expected to increase. The price has rebounded slightly, but the upward space is limited, and short - selling opportunities should be noted [17]. 3.7.8 PP - The supply pressure of PP has been relieved due to maintenance and new - capacity release, but the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to decline further [17]. 3.7.9 LLDPE - The production of LLDPE has increased due to more device maintenance, but the demand is in the off - season. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and the price is under pressure [17]. 3.8 Agricultural Products 3.8.1 Palm Oil - The palm - oil futures price has risen for three consecutive days, reaching a three - month high, supported by the rise of Dalian edible - oil futures and the weakening of the ringgit. However, the weak Chicago soybean oil has limited its increase. The market expects the Malaysian palm - oil inventory in June to shrink, and the upward trend will be restricted by the long - term production increase and the pressure on crude oil [19]. 3.8.2 Corn - The auction turnover rate of imported corn has decreased, which has a certain negative impact on the market. The price in the Northeast region has decreased. There is a risk of rice auctions in August, which may impact the corn market [19][20]. 3.8.3 US Soybeans - The price of US soybeans decreased. The trade disputes may affect US soybean exports. The weather during the key growing period from July to August is crucial. The market has a high expectation of a bumper harvest [19]. 3.8.4 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybeans are affected by biodiesel policies and bumper harvests. The domestic soybean - meal supply is under pressure, and the rapeseed - meal is mainly focused on inventory digestion. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade policies [19]. 3.8.5 Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed - oil inventory in ports is high and is slowly decreasing, supported by policy premiums. The soybean - oil supply is stable, but the terminal consumption is weak. The two oils are currently affected by palm oil, and there is a risk of a phased increase in the spread between soybean and palm oil [19]. 3.8.6 Pig - The large - scale pig - raising enterprises are not willing to increase the supply and reduce the weight of pigs. The supply in July is expected to decrease, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. There is a risk of a large - scale supply of second - fattened pigs from late July to late August, which will limit the rise of pig prices [20].