有色金属日报-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US copper tariff policy has increased market volatility, and the current policy remains uncertain, with price volatility risks still present. The production of refined copper in China is expected to remain high in July, and the inventory is expected to be relatively stable. The performance of SHFE copper is expected to be stronger than that of LME copper [2]. - The domestic commodity market sentiment remains strong, but there is uncertainty in overseas trade. The inventory of aluminum ingots remains low, but the supply of aluminum ingots is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulation in July is expected to be higher than last year, which will resist the upward movement of aluminum prices [4]. - The supply of primary lead remains high, while the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price of lead - acid batteries has stabilized, and the overall lead price shows a relatively strong trend, but the increase in SHFE lead is expected to be limited due to weak domestic consumption [5]. - The supply of zinc ore remains high, and the expectation of zinc ingot production increase is strong. The inventory accumulation has accelerated, and the zinc price is under downward pressure [6]. - The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited. The tin price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [7][8]. - The main contradiction in the nickel market lies in the stainless - steel production line. The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies [9]. - The price of lithium carbonate has rebounded, but the supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly, and the upside space is limited [11]. - The alumina production capacity is in excess, and the futures price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - It is the traditional off - season for stainless - steel consumption, and the supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the spot market is expected to remain weak [16]. - The supply and demand of cast aluminum alloy are both weak, and the futures price is under pressure due to the large basis between futures and spot and the expected limited increase in aluminum prices [18]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - Price: LME copper slightly decreased by 0.05% to $9660/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78330 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 4625 tons to 107125 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 2.1 million tons [2]. - Market: The domestic spot import loss narrowed, the Yangshan copper premium rebounded, and the scrap - to - refined copper price difference decreased [2]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum rose 0.97% to $2602/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20685 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.6 million tons to 39.1 million tons, and SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.06 to 4.8 million tons. The three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.65 million tons [4]. - Market: The domestic spot is at a discount, and the trading atmosphere has improved [4]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index rose 0.07% to 17180 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2048.5/ton [5]. - Inventory: SHFE lead futures inventory was 5.06 million tons, and LME lead inventory was 25.81 million tons [5]. - Market: The refined - to - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the overall lead price showed a relatively strong trend [5]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index rose 0.36% to 22064 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2720/ton [6]. - Inventory: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 0.9 million tons, and LME zinc inventory was 10.85 million tons [6]. - Market: The domestic social inventory slightly increased, and the zinc price was under downward pressure [6]. Tin - Price: On July 9, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 262920 yuan/ton, down 1.00% [7]. - Inventory: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 4 tons to 6738 tons, and LME inventory increased by 75 tons to 2060 tons [7]. - Market: The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, and the downstream consumption is in the off - season. The tin price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [7][8]. Nickel - Price: SHFE nickel main contract closed at 119420 yuan/ton, down 0.19%, and LME nickel main contract closed at $15000/ton, down 0.10% [9]. - Market: The demand for stainless steel is weak, the nickel - iron price has decreased, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC spot index rose 0.53%, and the LC2509 contract rose 0.81% [11]. - Market: The price of lithium carbonate has rebounded, but the upside space is limited due to unchanged supply - demand relationship [11]. Alumina - Price: On July 9, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.65% to 3110 yuan/ton [13]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1.86 million tons [13]. - Market: The alumina production capacity is in excess, and the futures price is expected to be anchored by cost [14]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12770 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [16]. - Inventory: The futures inventory decreased by 120 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 115.68 million tons, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 1.64% [16]. - Market: It is the off - season for consumption, and the supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse in the short term [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract closed down 0.1% to 19830 yuan/ton [18]. - Inventory: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places increased to 2.45 million tons [18]. - Market: The supply and demand are both weak, and the futures price is under pressure [18].