宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term trends of various agricultural commodity futures are mainly in a state of oscillation, with different degrees of strength or weakness in the short - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - Viewpoints: The intraday view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - Core Logic: Good weather in US soybean - producing areas, rising trade concerns, a well - supplied domestic soybean market, 8 - week consecutive low - level increase in oil mill soybean meal inventory, high - level continuous soybean meal pick - up volume, and an un - reversed negative basis of soybean meal. The short - term soybean meal futures price is affected by import cost, supply pressure, and trade concerns and turns to oscillating [5]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - Viewpoints: The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [7]. - Core Logic: The recent oil market is affected by the volatility of international oil prices, and market funds' attention to palm oil has increased. The palm oil market focuses on whether the Malaysian palm oil inventory can decline as expected. The phased supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil has tightened, Indian demand for importing palm oil has increased, and with the attention of funds, palm oil performs relatively strongly in the oil sector [7]. 3.3. Other Related Information - Time Cycle Definition: Short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month (based on the previous day's night - session closing price) [6]. - Factors Affecting Different Varieties: For soybean meal 2509, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand; for soybean oil 2509, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory; for palm 2509, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].