宝城期货动力煤早报-20250710

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report predicts that the price of thermal coal will maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend in the near future, but the upside potential is limited. The peak summer electricity - coal demand is strong, and the mid - and downstream inventories are gradually being depleted, which drives the coal price to rise slightly. However, the relatively high port inventory still suppresses the coal price rebound [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Supply - After the end of the national safety production month, coal mines with production stoppages and restrictions in the main production areas have gradually resumed production after rectification, leading to a slight increase in thermal coal supply [5]. Demand - Since July, domestic temperatures have further risen. In some coastal provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the maximum temperature has exceeded 40°C, resulting in strong residential cooling demand during the peak summer period. The National Climate Center predicts that most areas in China will have higher - than - normal temperatures in July 2025, and the precipitation in the southern part of the south - western region will be 20% - 50% more than normal, providing room for seasonal improvement in hydropower [5]. Port Inventory - As of July 3, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.493 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 747,000 tons. The inventory is still at a high level in the same period of the past 5 years, and the sufficient coal inventory in the northern ports continues to suppress coal prices [5].