宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250710

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the current contradictions are not significant, and the ore price is rising in an oscillating manner [2]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are stable. Although the steel mill production is weakening and the terminal consumption of ore has decreased but remains at a high level within the year, and the good profitability of steel mills provides strong support for the ore price. The port arrivals have increased month - on - month, but after the end - of - fiscal - year shipment rush, the shipments of miners continue to decrease, the overseas ore supply contracts, and the domestic ore production is weakly stable. The supply side is relatively favorable. The ore demand has certain resilience, and with the optimistic sentiment remaining, the ore price is supported to continue the upward - oscillating trend in the short term. However, the fundamentals of the ore have not improved substantially under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the upside potential should be cautiously optimistic, being alert to the switch of trading logic to the industrial side [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, the short - term trend is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is also oscillating with a slight upward trend. The view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the current contradictions are not significant, and the ore price is rising in an oscillating manner. There are specific explanations for calculating the rise and fall amplitude and definitions of different trends [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are stable. Steel mill production is weakening, but ore consumption remains high within the year, and the good profitability of steel mills supports the ore price. Port arrivals increase, but miner shipments decrease, overseas supply contracts, and domestic ore production is weakly stable. The demand has resilience, and the short - term ore price is supported to run with a slight upward trend, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and caution is needed for the upside potential [3].