国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250710

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily investment analysis and trend forecasts for various futures commodities, including metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Each commodity has its own specific market situation, influenced by factors such as inventory, supply and demand, macro - economic environment, and industry news [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Categories Metals Copper - Inventory increase puts pressure on copper prices. The current trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Multiple countries have announced measures to increase copper production, and LME's new warehouse in Hong Kong has attracted copper storage [5][7]. Zinc - Zinc is expected to run within a range. The trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral stance. China's 6 - month CPI and PPI data have been released [8][9]. Lead - Lead is supported by expectations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral situation. China's 6 - month CPI and PPI data are relevant [10][12]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum's center of gravity is moving up; alumina is short - term strong due to the rainy season in Guinea; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths are 0 for aluminum, 1 for alumina, and 0 for cast aluminum alloy [14][16]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel's upward elasticity is limited, and the price is under pressure at a low level. Stainless steel's inventory is slightly digested, and the price is recovering but with limited elasticity. The trend strengths are 0 for both nickel and stainless steel. Multiple industry news items, such as production changes in Indonesian nickel - related factories, have been reported [17][23]. Lithium Carbonate - There is an expected increase in the mining end, and the warehouse receipts are rising but the total amount is low. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [24][26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts are being depleted, and the market volatility is increasing. Polysilicon's volatility is intensifying, and attention should be paid to policies. The trend strengths are 0 for industrial silicon and 1 for polysilicon. Yunnan has issued policies to promote the photovoltaic industry [27][30]. Iron Ore - Iron ore's expectations are fluctuating, and it is in a wide - range shock. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. China's June CPI data has been released [31]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by macro - sentiment and are in wide - range shocks. The trend strengths are 0 for both. Multiple industry news items, such as steel production and inventory data and Vietnam's anti - dumping measures, have been reported [34][37]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are affected by macro - sentiment and are in wide - range shocks. The trend strengths are 0 for ferrosilicon and 1 for silicomanganese. Multiple industry news items, including price quotes and steel mill procurement information, have been reported [38][40]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke is in a slightly upward - trending shock; coking coal is affected by news and is also in a slightly upward - trending shock. The trend strengths are 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal. Price and inventory data, as well as industry news, have been provided [41][44]. Steam Coal - Steam coal's daily consumption is recovering, and the price is stabilizing in a shock. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral situation [46][49]. Forest Products Logs - Logs are experiencing a main contract switch and are in a wide - range shock. The trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral outlook. Trump has postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" [50][52]. Chemicals Paraxylene (PX), PTA, and MEG - PX is in a single - sided shock market; PTA requires attention to the implementation of polyester filament factory production cuts and a month - spread reverse arbitrage; MEG is in a single - sided shock market, and a month - spread long - position arbitrage should be considered at low levels. The trend strengths are 0 for PX, 0 for PTA, and 1 for MEG. Market supply and demand information and price data have been provided [53][60]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber is in a slightly upward - trending shock; synthetic rubber follows the rubber sector's rebound [27][29]. Asphalt - Asphalt is temporarily in a shock, and attention should be paid to the risk of rising crude oil prices [31]. LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Glass, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, LPG, and PVC - LLDPE is short - term strong in a shock; PP's spot price is falling, and the trading is light; caustic soda is short - term strong; pulp is in a slightly upward - trending shock; glass's original sheet price is stable; methanol is short - term in a shock; urea is in a slight upward - trending pattern; styrene is short - term in a shock; soda ash's spot market has little change; LPG is in a short - term wide - range shock; PVC is short - term in a shock and will face pressure later [22][51]. Energy and Shipping Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil's night - session performance is weak, and it is mainly in a narrow - range adjustment; low - sulfur fuel oil is in a short - term shock, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [44]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The 08 contract is in a shock consolidation, and a light short - position in the 10 contract can be held [44]. Agricultural Products Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Sugar, Cotton, Egg, Live Pig, and Peanut - Palm oil is pushed up by macro - sentiment, but the fundamental upside is limited; soybean oil lacks driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans; soybean meal may be in a weak shock due to trade concerns and the decline of US soybeans; soybean's spot price is stable, and the market is in a shock; corn is in a shock adjustment; sugar is in a consolidation period; cotton's old - crop inventory shortage expectation continues to support the futures price; attention should be paid to the realization of spot prices in the peak season for eggs; the sentiment in the live - pig spot market is weakening; peanuts have support at the bottom [44][70]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Short - fiber is short - term in a shock, and a reverse arbitrage should be considered at high levels; bottle - chip is short - term in a shock, and a long - PR short - PF strategy can be adopted [44][57]. Offset Printing Paper - Offset printing paper is in a shock operation [58].