沥青：暂时震荡，警惕原油上行风险

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that asphalt is currently in a temporary state of oscillation, and investors should be wary of the risk of rising crude oil prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Information: The closing price of BU2507 was 3,620 yuan/ton, down 1.15%, with a night - session closing price of 3,620 yuan/ton and no change. The closing price of BU2508 was 3,647 yuan/ton, up 0.75%, and the night - session closing price was 3,658 yuan/ton, up 0.30%. The trading volume of BU2507 was 42 lots, a decrease of 648 lots, and the open interest was 1,119 lots, a decrease of 13 lots. The trading volume of BU2508 was 3,974 lots, an increase of 1,006 lots, and the open interest was 15,024 lots, a decrease of 1,821 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 82,300 lots with no change [1]. - Spread Information: The basis (Shandong - 07) was 215 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 07 - 08 inter - period spread was - 27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton. The Shandong - South China spread was 215, up 20, and the East China - South China spread was 210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot Market Information: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,835 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,830 yuan/ton with no change. As of July 7, the refinery operating rate was 35.53%, up 2.72% from July 3, and the refinery inventory rate was 27.91% with no change [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of asphalt is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [9]. 3.3 Market Information - In the week of 20250703 - 0709, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 32.7%, a 1.0% increase from the previous week, mainly due to the slight production increase of individual refineries in the Northwest and Southwest regions and the resumption of asphalt production by major refineries in the South China and Shandong regions [13]. - In the week of 20250702 - 0708, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.8 tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous week. The increase was more obvious in the East China and Southwest regions. In the East China region, the main refineries' shipments by ship increased, and in the Southwest region, individual refineries increased production and some goods were exported [13].