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白糖:整理期
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-10 01:51

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sugar market is in a consolidation period, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Prices: The raw sugar price is 16.56 cents/pound, up 0.43; the mainstream spot price is 6050 yuan/ton, up 10; the futures main - contract price is 5779 yuan/ton, up 32 [1]. - Spreads: The 91 spread is 173 yuan/ton, up 15; the 15 spread is 48 yuan/ton, up 3; the mainstream spot basis is 271 yuan/ton, down 22 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; Brazil's central - south MIX increased significantly year - on - year; India's monsoon precipitation was higher than LPA; Brazil exported 3.36 million tons in June, a 5% year - on - year increase; China imported 350,000 tons of sugar in May [1]. 3.3 Market Supply and Demand - Domestic Market: CAOC expects domestic sugar production to be 11.16 million tons in the 24/25 season, with consumption of 15.8 million tons and imports of 5 million tons; for the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), cumulative sales were 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.7%. China imported 2.1 million tons of sugar (-1.04 million tons) [2]. - International Market: ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 4.88 million tons). As of June 16 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central - south decreased by 14 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 9.4 million tons (-1.61 million tons), and the cumulative MIX increased by 2.12 percentage points. As of May 15 in the 24/25 season, India produced 25.74 million tons of sugar (-5.8 million tons), and Thailand produced 10.08 million tons of sugar (+1.27 million tons) [2].