Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 2024/25 sugar production season, China's total sugar output reached 11.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 million tons; total sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.52 million tons; the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Favorable weather conditions in major domestic sugar - growing regions are conducive to the growth of sugarcane and sugar beets. Globally, the sugar supply in the 2025/26 season is expected to be loose, and international sugar prices are showing a weak trend [1] - Due to US tariffs, China's cotton imports did not meet expectations. Overall, the light and temperature conditions in domestic cotton - growing areas are suitable for cotton growth, and the development stage of most cotton is 3 - 15 days earlier than in previous years. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on cotton yield [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar - Production and Sales: In the 2024/25 season, China's cumulative sugar production reached 11.16 million tons, up 1.2 million tons year - on - year; cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, up 1.52 million tons year - on - year; the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than last year [1] - Domestic Growing Conditions: Since May, precipitation in Guangxi has alleviated the previous drought, and rainfall in Yunnan has been higher than the same period in previous years, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth. Although sugar beet sowing in Inner Mongolia was delayed due to low temperatures, recent improvements in light and temperature have restored good growth, and the growth of sugar beets in Xinjiang is also generally good [1] - International Market: In the 2025/26 season, major sugar - producing countries such as India are expected to increase production, and the impact of drought in Brazil is relatively limited. The global sugar supply is becoming looser, and international sugar prices are running weakly [1] - Price and Data Changes: From July 8 to July 9, 2025, the price of US sugar rose from 16.15 to 16.54 US dollars, an increase of 2.41%. The price of sugar in Nanning rose from 6020 to 6040 yuan, an increase of 0.33%, and the price of sugar in Kunming rose from 5865 to 6365 yuan, an increase of 8.53%. The sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 23092 to 22987, a decrease of 0.45% [1][3] Cotton - Import and Growing Conditions: Due to US tariffs, cotton imports did not meet expectations. The light and temperature in domestic cotton - growing areas are generally suitable for growth. Most of the cotton in Xinjiang has entered the squaring stage, and cotton in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins is in the fifth true leaf to squaring stage, with the development stage 3 - 15 days earlier than in previous years [1] - Price and Data Changes: From July 8 to July 9, 2025, the price of US cotton rose from 67.32 to 67.72 US dollars, an increase of 0.59%. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a decrease of 0.06%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 15200 yuan. The cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 9971 to 9932, a decrease of 0.39% [1][3]
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Xin Da Qi Huo·2025-07-10 02:01