合成橡胶：跟随橡胶板块反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the commodity market was driven by the warming of macro - sentiment last night, and the rubber sector rose collectively at the end of the night session. The futures market has strong short - term speculation. However, the overall spot trading of synthetic rubber is weak, and the spot speculation is limited. With significant fundamental pressure, the upside space is limited. Therefore, the overall short - term trend of the market is expected to be volatile [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (08 contract) was 11,310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 84,323 lots, a decrease of 89,309 lots; the open interest was 27,783 lots, a decrease of 250 lots; the trading volume was 477.212 million yuan, a decrease of 495.802 million yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis of Shandong butadiene rubber - futures main contract was 140 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The monthly spread of BR07 - BR08 North China butadiene rubber (private) was - 110 yuan, a decrease of 145 yuan. The prices of East China butadiene rubber (private) and South China butadiene rubber (private) remained unchanged at 11,250 yuan and 11,300 yuan respectively. The market price of Shandong butadiene rubber (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,450 yuan. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) was 11,750 yuan, up 50 yuan; the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) was 10,650 yuan, up 150 yuan. The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu was 9,050 yuan, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price in Shandong was 9,075 yuan, down 75 yuan [1]. 3.1.3 Fundamental Data - The butadiene rubber operating rate was 65.2894%, down 0.35% from the previous day. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 11,770 yuan/ton, up 103 yuan; the butadiene rubber profit was - 370 yuan/ton, down 103 yuan [1]. 3.2 Industry News - On July 9th, it was reported that the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 23,600 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons from the previous period. Although the arrival of imported ships was limited during the week, some domestic supplies supplemented, resulting in a slight increase in the inventory of sample ports. The tradable volume in ports is currently limited, and merchants expect a possible decline in imports in July [1]. - As of July 9, 2025 (week 28), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period (2025702), a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. This week, the supply price of butadiene rubber was expected to decline. Along with the improvement of low - price transactions at the butadiene raw material end and the news of a malfunction in an upstream device in East China, the cautious and bearish sentiment in the market was partially alleviated, driving some rigid - demand purchases to follow up with price pressure. The price difference between private resources and Sinopec/CNPC resources narrowed. The overall inventory of sample production enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [1][3].