五矿期货贵金属日报-20250710

Group 1: Market Performance - On July 10, 2025, Shanghai gold (Au) rose 0.19% to 771.02 yuan/gram, while Shanghai silver (Ag) fell 0.33% to 8870.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.15% to 3326.00 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.01% to 36.63 dollars/ounce. The US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.34%, and the US dollar index was 97.44 [2] - The trading data on July 9 showed that for gold, COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) rose 0.35% to 3322.50 dollars/ounce, but its trading volume fell 22.91% to 15.58 million lots. For silver, COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) fell 0.87% to 36.61 dollars/ounce, and its open interest (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) fell 6.33% to 16.36 million lots [7] Group 2: Market Outlook and Policy Expectations - The Fed minutes released early today showed that Fed voters remained cautious about interest rate cuts, but there were differences in views within the Fed. "New Fed newswire" Nick Timiraos said that Fed voters were divided into three camps: supporting rate cuts after July, not supporting rate cuts in the second half of the year, and supporting rate cuts at the July meeting. Under the pressure of the Trump administration, the internal differences are expected to increase, and monetary policy expectations will eventually turn dovish [2] - Given the US fiscal expansion and high interest payments, the Fed's further easing in the second half of the year is certain. It is expected that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged at the July meeting but turn dovish in its statement, and cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting [3] Group 3: Investment Suggestions - In the context of the Fed's monetary policy turning dovish, attention should be paid to the long - position opportunities in silver. Gold will perform relatively weakly due to the gradual realization of the US broad - fiscal expectations. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 8638 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 4: Other Market Data - Other market data on July 10 showed that the US 10 - year Treasury yield fell from 4.42% to 4.34%, TIPS fell from 2.07% to 2.01%, the US dollar index was almost flat at 97.4931, and the offshore RMB exchange rate fell 0.49%. Major stock indexes such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all rose [4]