聚丙烯风险管理日报-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core View of the Report - PP is currently in a volatile pattern. Considering its fundamentals, the upside and downside space for PP is limited. In the short - term, PP is expected to maintain this volatile pattern. The supply side is expected to have significant increments, including new plant commissions and reduced equipment maintenance, which restricts upward price movement. Although in the demand off - season, demand shows some resilience at low prices, limiting the downside space [2] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6900 - 7200. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 13.27%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 30.3% [1] 3.2 Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7100 - 7150, and sell PP2509C7100 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 50 - 100 [1] 3.2.2 Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and the need to purchase according to orders, it is recommended to buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6950 - 7000, and sell PP2509P7000 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 40 - 70 [1] 3.3 Market Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - side Factors - Multiple PP plants are expected to be commissioned from June to August, with an expected new production capacity of 2.2 million tons. In July, PP equipment maintenance is expected to decrease, and plants are gradually resuming operations, increasing supply pressure [2] 3.3.2 Demand - side Factors - Although PP is in the demand off - season, demand shows some resilience at low prices, which may trigger bottom - fishing sentiment [2] 3.3.3 Market Conditions - Inventory remains at a neutral level, and the spot price is relatively stable with little change in the basis [5] 3.4 Market Data 3.4.1 Price and Spread Data - Data on polypropylene's main basis, contract prices, month - to - month spreads, regional spreads, and spreads between non - standard and standard products are provided [6] 3.4.2 Upstream Price and Processing Profit - Data on upstream prices such as Brent crude oil, US propane, northwest coal, and East China methanol, as well as processing profits for different production methods of PP, are presented [6]