银河期货原油期货早报-20250710

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Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term expected to maintain a volatile pattern, Brent to be watched in the range of $68.5 - 71/barrel, medium - term bearish [2]. - Asphalt: High - level volatility, cost - end remains strong, short - term supply - demand is weak, price expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation [3][4][5]. - LPG: Expected to be weak, with a decline in total supply, weak combustion demand and weakening chemical demand [6][7][8]. - Natural gas: US natural gas prices are expected to rise, while European natural gas prices are affected by temperature and storage regulations [7][8]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has seasonal demand support but is affected by supply and spot price, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing and demand lacks drive [10][11]. - PX: Expected to fluctuate with the cost - end in the short term, with tight supply and increasing downstream demand [13]. - PTA: Expected to fluctuate, with an increase in inventory accumulation expectation and price under pressure [15]. - Ethylene glycol: Expected to fluctuate, with supply recovery and inventory accumulation expectation in August - September, but cost support from coal prices [16][17]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, with production cuts planned by major manufacturers and weak terminal demand [18]. - PR (bottle chips): Expected to fluctuate with the raw material end in the short term, with processing fees strengthening and production cuts gradually implemented [21]. - Styrene: Expected to fluctuate, with the supply - demand pattern weakening in the third quarter and price under pressure [25]. - Plastic PP: Medium - term prices are bearish, short - term prices are volatile due to cost push [26][27]. - PVC: In the second half of the year, it is in a supply - demand surplus pattern and price is under pressure, but short - term watch due to strong black market [31]. - Caustic soda: Short - term expected to fluctuate strongly, pay attention to liquid chlorine price and spot [31]. - Glass: Expected to fluctuate, with the price having no continuous driving force due to cost and demand factors [33]. - Soda ash: Expected to fluctuate, with supply and demand factors affecting the price and overall sentiment being positive [35][36]. - Methanol: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, pay attention to the evolution of the Middle East situation [38][39]. - Urea: Short - term strong, but be cautious when chasing high due to weak domestic demand and export restrictions [41][42]. - Log: Near - month contracts are in the delivery verification stage, recommend watching, pay attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads [43]. - Double - offset paper: In a supply - demand weak situation, paper mills have a strong willingness to hold prices, and wood pulp prices help relieve cost pressure [45]. - Corrugated paper: In a weak pattern, with sufficient supply, weak demand, and poor cost support [46]. - Pulp: SP main 09 contract can try to go long, pay attention to the 2SP2509 - NR2509 spread [47][48]. - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: RU main 09 contract to watch, NR main 09 contract can try to go long, pay attention to the RU2509 - NR2509 spread [50][51]. - Butadiene rubber: BR main 09 contract can try to go long, pay attention to the BR2509 - NR2509 spread [54]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2508 contract settled at $68.38, up $0.05/barrel, + 0.07%; Brent2509 contract settled at $70.19, up $0.04/barrel, + 0.06%; SC main contract 2508 rose 5.8 to 515.7 yuan/barrel, night - session rose 4.4 to 520.1 yuan/barrel; Brent main - second - line spread was $1.19/barrel [1]. - Related News: Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and there may be a cease - fire in Gaza; Trump announced tariffs on products from multiple countries [1]. - Logic Analysis: Near - month spreads are strong, overseas diesel cracking spreads are high, refinery profits are recovering, short - term balance is maintained, and long - term supply surplus pressure is not fully priced [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term range - trading for single - side, watch the Brent range of $68.5 - 71/barrel; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable for arbitrage; watch for options [2][3]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 night - session closed at 3627 points (+ 0.11%), BU2512 night - session closed at 3436 points (- 0.12%); spot prices in different regions were reported [3]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, with supply being sufficient and demand being weak [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: Oil prices are volatile at a high level, cost - end is strong, short - term supply - demand is weak, inventory is stable, single - side price is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation, and cracking spreads are expected to remain high [4][5]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side high - level volatility; asphalt - crude oil spread is stable for arbitrage; watch for options [5][7]. LPG - Market Review: PG2508 night - session closed at 4192 (+ 0.34%), PG2509 night - session closed at 4091 (+ 0.34%); spot prices in different regions were reported [5]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, with overall supply - demand being weak [5][6]. - Logic Analysis: Supply decreased last week, demand is weak in both combustion and chemical fields, and inventory decreased. The overall fundamentals are loose [6][7][8]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side weak operation [8]. Natural Gas - Market Review: TTF closed at 34.304 (+ 0.25%), HH closed at 3.211 (- 3.77%), JKM closed at 12.5 (+ 0.32%) [8]. - Logic Analysis: US natural gas production decreased, demand is strong, LNG export increased, prices are expected to rise; European natural gas prices are affected by temperature and storage regulations [7][8]. - Trading Strategy: HH single - side buy on dips, TTF single - side volatility [9]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 contract night - session closed at 2964 (- 0.60%), LU09 night - session closed at 3686 (- 0.30%); Singapore paper - cargo market spreads changed [10]. - Related News: South Sudan issued a tender, Ukraine attacked Russian refineries, and Singapore spot - window transactions were reported [10]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur spot discounts declined, supply is expected to increase, and demand has seasonal support; low - sulfur supply is increasing and demand lacks drive [10][11]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side watch; watch the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot for arbitrage [12]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6724 (+ 28/+ 0.42%), night - session closed at 6752 (+ 28/+ 0.42%); spot prices and PXN changed [13]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately [13]. - Logic Analysis: Social inventory is low, supply is tight, Asian PX operating rate declined, and downstream demand is increasing [13]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [14]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4718 (+ 8/+ 0.17%), night - session closed at 4732 (+ 14/+ 0.30%); spot basis changed [14]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately [15]. - Logic Analysis: Futures fluctuated, spot basis weakened, domestic TA load increased slightly, downstream polyester load decreased, and inventory accumulation expectation increased [15]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [15]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4283 (+ 16/+ 0.37%), night - session closed at 4308 (+ 25/+ 0.58%); spot basis and prices were reported [15][16]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately; some overseas and domestic plants restarted [16]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is expected to recover, inventory accumulation is expected in August - September, downstream demand is weak, but coal prices provide cost support [16][17]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [17]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2508 main contract day - session closed at 6528 (+ 10/+ 0.15%), night - session closed at 6552 (+ 24/+ 0.37%); spot prices in different regions decreased [17][18]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately [18]. - Logic Analysis: Some plants cut production, processing margins expanded, terminal demand is weak, and major manufacturers still have production - cut plans in July [18]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [19]. PR (bottle chips) - Market Review: PR2509 main contract closed at 5880 (+ 14/+ 0.24%), night - session closed at 5892 (+ 12/+ 0.20%); spot market trading was okay [20]. - Related News: Polyester bottle - chip factory export quotes were mostly stable [21]. - Logic Analysis: Processing fees strengthened, production cuts were gradually implemented, and it is expected to fluctuate with the raw material end in the short term [21]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [22]. Styrene - Market Review: BZ2503 main contract day - session closed at 6070 (+ 139/+ 2.34%), night - session closed at 6140 (+ 70/+ 1.15%); EB2508 main contract day - session closed at 7350 (+ 74/+ 1.02%), night - session closed at 7437 (+ 87/+ 1.18%); spot prices and basis changed [22][24]. - Related News: East China pure - benzene port inventory decreased, and styrene East China main - port inventory increased [24]. - Logic Analysis: Pure - benzene supply is abundant, demand is expected to increase; styrene supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates [25]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; long pure - benzene and short styrene for arbitrage; watch for options [26]. Plastic PP - Market Review: LLDPE market prices in some regions declined, and PP spot prices in different regions changed [26][27]. - Related News: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed [27]. - Logic Analysis: There is large production - capacity release pressure in the third quarter, terminal demand is weak, and prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and bearish in the medium term [27]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side medium - term bearish, short - term volatile; watch for arbitrage and options [28]. PVC Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC spot prices increased, and caustic soda spot prices in different regions changed [28][29][30]. - Related News: Product prices in different regions changed, and some chlorine - alkali enterprises adjusted their loads [30]. - Logic Analysis: PVC has production - capacity release pressure, domestic demand is weak, and exports face risks; caustic soda has a peak - season expectation, but new production capacity will be released in July - August [31]. - Trading Strategy: Caustic soda single - side short - term volatile and strong; PVC single - side short - term watch, medium - term bearish; watch for arbitrage and options [32]. Glass - Market Review: Glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1035 yuan/ton (10/0.98%), night - session closed at 1048 yuan/ton (13/1.26%); 9 - 1 spread was - 97 yuan/ton; spot prices in different regions were stable [32]. - Related News: The domestic float - glass market was stable, and some regions planned to increase prices [32]. - Logic Analysis: Glass prices were strong, but there is no continuous driving force due to cost and demand factors; overall sentiment is positive, and prices are expected to fluctuate [33]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side overall sentiment positive, glass volatile; watch for arbitrage and options [33][34]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1194 yuan/ton (16/1.4%), night - session closed at 1206 yuan (12/1.0%); SA9 - 1 spread was - 43 yuan/ton; spot prices in different regions changed [34]. - Related News: The domestic soda - ash market was weak, and some enterprises adjusted prices; photovoltaic "anti - involution" and other news were reported [34][35]. - Logic Analysis: Soda ash prices were strong, supply may decline, demand is weak, inventory accumulates, and profits are shrinking; overall sentiment is positive, and prices are expected to fluctuate [35][36]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side overall sentiment positive, soda ash volatile; watch for arbitrage and options [37]. Methanol - Market Review: Futures prices rose, and spot prices in different regions were reported [37]. - Related News: China's methanol port inventory increased [37]. - Logic Analysis: International plant operating rates increased, imports are expected to recover, supply is loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [38][39]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and weakness; watch for arbitrage; sell call options [40]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures were strong, and spot prices increased [40]. - Related News: China's urea enterprise inventory decreased [41]. - Logic Analysis: Some plants were under maintenance, demand is affected by domestic and international factors, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term but be cautious when chasing high [41][42]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side short - term strong; watch for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [42]. Log - Market Review: 9 - month contract prices declined; some radiation - pine log prices changed [42][43]. - Related News: New Zealand port log departures and sea - freight rates changed; there were delivery intentions and pairings [42][43]. - Logic Analysis: Downstream demand is weak, and the scale difference supports the disk; pay attention to delivery details [43]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side watch for near - month contracts; watch the 9 - 11 reverse spread for arbitrage; watch for options [43][44][45]. Double - offset Paper - Market Review: The double - offset paper market was stable, and prices in different regions were reported [45]. - Related News: Some production lines in East China were shut down, and paper - enterprise inventory pressure was relieved [45]. - Logic Analysis: Supply and demand are weak, paper mills have a strong willingness to hold prices, and wood pulp prices help relieve cost pressure [45]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Corrugated Paper - Market Review: Corrugated and box - board paper market prices were stable, and some regions adjusted prices; raw - material prices were stable [46]. - Related News: Market sentiment was divided, and some paper mills adjusted prices [46]. - Logic Analysis: The market is in a weak pattern, with sufficient supply, weak demand, and poor cost support [46]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Pulp - Market Review: Pulp futures were strong, and spot prices in different regions changed [47]. - Related News: Shandong Sun Paper will build a pulp mill [48]. - Logic Analysis: Some economic data are favorable for SP single - side [48]. - Trading Strategy: SP main 09 contract try to go long; reduce and watch the 2SP2509 - NR2509 spread [48]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Market Review: RU main 09 contract rose, NR main 09 contract rose, and BR main 09 contract rose; spot prices in different regions were reported [48][49][50]. - Related News: June national passenger - car retail sales increased [50]. - Logic Analysis: Some economic data are favorable for the spread and single - side [50]. - Trading